tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-91797832956693526132024-03-05T18:16:45.301+08:00高易居士-全球經濟-全球房訊-陽宅-卜卦-命理Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.comBlogger948125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-59918686685597454212015-04-06T15:18:00.001+08:002015-04-06T15:18:19.968+08:00房價直直落 出現「死亡交叉」<div id="story_body" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(215, 215, 215); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #444444; font-family: Helvetica, 'Heiti TC', 'Segoe UI', Meiryo, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 28px 68px 32px; position: relative; text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">房價直直落 出現「死亡交叉」</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2015-04-05 10:22:09 聯合晚報 記者游智文/台北報導</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;">房市交易低迷,最新調查顯示,雙北市成交物件中,低於市價5%和高於市價5%的占比,已出現「死亡交叉」,房仲業表示,這對賣方是一大警訊,有意售屋者應加快腳步。 報系資料照片</span></h4>
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<span style="font-size: large;">房市交易低迷,最新調查顯示,雙北市成交物件中,低於市價5%和高於市價5%的占比,已出現「死亡交叉」,房仲業表示,這對賣方是一大警訊,有意售屋者應加快腳步。<a name='more'></a></span><div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">受房地合一稅改影響,大台北房市自去年下半年起急轉直下,今年交易情況更不理想,雙北市本周公布三月房屋買賣移轉件數,北市僅2179件,新北市僅3815件,雙雙創下自1999年有統計數據以來同期新低。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">買氣不振,讓房市從賣方市場轉為買方市場,賣方節節退讓。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">永慶房產集團近日統計分析內部成交案件,雙北賣方原本高高在上,台北市去年第1季以高於市價5%以上成交的物件,占比達26%,等於四戶就有一戶以高於行情出售,以低於市價5%出售的,則僅有11%。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">但到去年第4季,台北市高於5%的成交物件下降至23%,低於行情5%出售的物件,占比已拉高15%,兩者差距快速拉近,今年第1季更出現近年首見的「死亡交叉」,低於行情5%以上的物件占比達25%,等於四間房子就有一間降價出售,遠遠多於高於行情出售的物件。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">新北市情況更是明顯,去年第1季高於行情5%以上出售的房子,占比達36%,僅有6%房子以低於行情出售,顯示屋主大占上風,然而,今年第一季,低於行情成交的物件占比18%,已比高於行情的14%,多出4個百分點,買賣雙方已「主客異位」。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">台北市近二年成交行情變化資料來源:永慶房產集團</span></h4>
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<span style="font-size: large;">永慶房產集團研展中心經理黃舒衛表示,此一交易行情變化,顯示大台北房市現在已不是多空交戰,而是空方明顯壓過多方,市場對於房價下跌已有定見,買方市場更進一步確立。</span><div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">在此情況下,黃舒衛表示,雖然近期景氣燈號再亮綠燈,顯示國內經濟景氣持續溫和成長,但已無法激勵民眾追價,相反的,在低於市場行情物件愈來愈多下,買方對降價幅度的要求會愈來愈高,過去低於市場行情5%能夠成交的物件,未來買方不一定願意接手。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">新北市近二年成交行情變化資料來源:永慶房產集團</span></h4>
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<span style="font-size: large;">由於目前市場待售量大,囤房稅開徵、房屋稅、地價稅增加等持有稅大增,加上目前房地合一尚未定案,調整趨嚴的機會仍多,加上長期持有優惠減徵方案未定,變數仍大,建議有意售屋的屋主,應提早下定決定「有感降價」,早點獲利了結,以免獲利減損,甚至最後不賺反虧。</span><div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
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<dt class="more1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/813368-%E6%89%93%E6%88%BF%E5%BE%8C%E9%81%BA%E7%97%87-%E7%82%92%E6%88%BF%E8%B3%87%E9%87%91%E6%B9%A7%E5%85%A5%E5%AE%9C%E8%8A%B1" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 302px;"><span style="font-size: large;">打房後遺症 炒房資金湧入宜花</span><span style="color: #999999; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;"><span style="font-size: large;">2015-04-0</span><span style="font-size: 12px;">3</span></span></a></dt>
<dt class="more1" style="font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/813902-%E6%88%BF%E5%B8%82%E6%8C%87%E6%A8%99%E5%A4%B1%E9%9D%88-%E4%B8%8A%E5%AD%A3%E5%9C%9F%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E5%86%B7%E4%B8%8B%E4%BE%86%E4%BA%86" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 302px;">房市指標失靈 上季土地交易冷下來了<span style="color: #999999; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;">2015-04-03</span></a></dt>
<dt class="more1" style="font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/813897-%E9%A1%8F%E7%82%B3%E7%AB%8B%EF%BC%9A%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E6%98%AF%E5%B0%8F%E4%B8%89%E7%9A%84%E5%91%BD-%E6%98%AF%E6%94%BF%E6%B2%BB%E7%9A%84%E7%8E%A9%E7%89%A9" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 302px;">顏炳立:房地產是小三的命 是政治的玩物<span style="color: #999999; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;">2015-04-03</span></a></dt>
<dt class="more1" style="font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/812365-%E7%86%B1%E9%8C%A2%E6%B5%B7%E5%A4%96%E6%B5%81%E7%AB%84-%E5%95%86%E4%BB%B2%E4%BC%B0%E4%BB%8A%E5%B9%B4%E6%8C%91%E6%88%B05000" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 302px;">熱錢海外流竄 商仲估今年挑戰5000<span style="color: #999999; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;">2015-04-02</span></a></dt>
<dt class="more1" style="font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/812342-%E6%B8%B8%E8%B3%87%E6%90%B6%E5%9C%B0-%E5%AE%9C%E8%98%AD%E5%9C%9F%E5%9C%B0%E7%A7%BB%E8%BD%89%E9%87%8F%E5%B9%B4%E5%A2%9E37%" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 302px;">游資搶地 宜蘭土地移轉量年增37%<span style="color: #999999; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;">2015-04-02</span></a></dt>
<dt class="more1" style="font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/812334-%E5%95%86%E4%BB%B2%EF%BC%9A%E5%BF%AB%E6%99%82%E5%B0%9A%E5%B0%87%E6%93%8A%E9%80%80%E7%A7%9F%E6%88%B6-%E5%BA%97%E9%9D%A2%E9%87%8D%E6%96%B0%E6%B4%97%E7%89%8C" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 302px;">商仲:快時尚將擊退租戶 店面重新洗牌<span style="color: #999999; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;">2015-04-02</span></a></dt>
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="m2" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; display: block; font-size: 15px; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 402px;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="m3" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; display: block; font-size: 15px; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 402px;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="m4" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; display: block; font-size: 15px; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 402px;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="m5" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; display: block; font-size: 15px; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 402px;"></a></dl>
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<h3 style="color: #0054a6; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<i></i>熱門文章</h3>
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<dt class="more1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://house.udn.com/house/story/5886/806639-%E6%96%B0%E7%89%88%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E5%90%88%E4%B8%80-%E6%8C%81%E6%9C%891%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A7%E5%94%AE%E5%87%BA%E7%A8%85%E7%8E%8735%" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 302px;">新版房地合一 持有1年內售出稅率35%<span style="color: #999999; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;">2015-03-31</span></a></dt>
<dt class="more1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/805048-%E5%8F%B0%E4%B8%AD%E3%80%81%E5%8F%B0%E5%8D%97%E3%80%81%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82%E8%80%81%E9%9B%BB%E6%A2%AF%E5%AE%85-%E5%90%B9%E8%A3%9C%E6%BC%B2%E9%A2%A8" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 302px;">台中、台南、北市老電梯宅 吹補漲風<span style="color: #999999; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;">2015-03-30</span></a></dt>
<dt class="more1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/790522-%E4%BD%A0%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%8D%E7%9F%A5%E9%81%93-%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82%E6%88%BF%E5%B1%8B%E8%B6%85%E9%A1%8D%E4%BE%9B%E7%B5%A6%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%9F%E5%AF%A6%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 302px;">你可能不知道 北市房屋超額供給的真實原因<span style="color: #999999; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;">2015-03-26</span></a></dt>
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<dt class="more1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/801531-%E6%88%BF%E5%B8%82%E5%9B%9E%E4%B8%8D%E5%8E%BB%E4%BA%86%EF%BC%9F-%E7%A5%9D%E6%96%87%E5%AE%87%EF%BC%9A%E8%A6%AA%E6%B0%91%E5%8D%80%E5%85%88%E5%9B%9E%E6%9A%96" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 302px;">房市回不去了? 祝文宇:親民區先回暖<span style="color: #999999; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;">2015-03-28</span></a></dt>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-60904820468887357752015-04-06T15:15:00.001+08:002015-04-06T15:15:16.153+08:00房市降溫 自住買家進場好時機<div class="area" id="story" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); color: #444444; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'LiHei Pro', 新細明體, PMingLiU, sans-serif; line-height: 23.3999996185303px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; position: relative;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">房市降溫 自住買家進場好時機</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2015-04-05 10:43:05 經濟日報 記者郭及天整理</span></h3>
<iframe frameborder="0" height="38" id="mySave" scrolling="no" src="http://house.udn.com/sfclient/mySave.html" style="display: block; float: left;" width="90"></iframe><a class="explanation only_web" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="background: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png) -179px -959px no-repeat; color: #0054a6; display: inline-block; float: left; height: 28px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline; width: 28px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b></b></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">■葉凌棋</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">(永慶房產集團房產事業群總經理)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">政府調控房市,全台房市買氣低迷,根據內政部資料統計發現,2014年全台買賣移轉交易量僅約32.1萬件,為近12年來新低,量能比2003年SARS時還少;而且,今年1~2月台北、新北、桃園、新竹縣市、台中、台南、高雄等全台七大都會區,買賣移轉量也未見起色,七都交易量能持續下滑,包含台北、新北、高雄的移轉量較去年同期衰退幅度更超過兩成。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">除了交易量續縮外,根據永慶價格指數,全台七大都會區2015年2月底前,不含預售屋的成交均價表現較上季全面下修,尤其北市價格創近八季新低,新北市及高雄則是近五季最低。北市今年首季房價已從歷史最高點下修6%,新北也下滑5%,全台主要都會區房價都出現鬆動,而跌幅更有擴大跡象。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">由於政府調控房市,財政與稅負手段雙管齊下,不僅針對特定區非自用宅、高總價產品進行限貸外,更有查稅、加稅、升息等各項措施,現階段還要推動房地合一稅立法,致使全台房市買氣低迷,量能頻創新低。目前市場看跌房市聲浪越愈來愈高漲,更陸續出現降價求售的狀況,房價修正已成為市場普遍的認知。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">舉例來說,近期房市買氣走疲,民眾進場意願低,市場對房價下修,正逐漸形成高度共識,根據最新一季永慶房產趨勢調查報告數據顯示,民眾普遍認為未來半年「不是」購屋好時機,其比重達49%,而持相反意見者僅28%,不僅較上季大減9%,更是近三季新低,顯見當前民眾對於購屋態度相當保守。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">另外,調查結果也指出,全台民眾對於未來一年、一季的房價看法,看跌的比率持續擴大,其中,未來一年「看跌」房價比重為52%,更創近13季來最高。並且,全台七大都會區對未來一季的房價看法,看跌比重都多於看漲,顯示央行開始關注中南部及偏遠地區房價飆漲狀況,種種調控方式,確實使市場信心轉為保守,加上去年地方九合一大選後,新首長對區內各項重大建設規劃重新審視,引發市場疑慮,導致民眾對雙北以外區域,房價看法開始由漲轉跌,出現大幅降溫狀況。這是奢侈稅實施後,首次出現的趨勢逆轉現象,全台房市「轉冷」趨勢已全面成型。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">另外,因目前政策調控房市未鬆手及明年選舉變數大等因素影響,現階段市場屋主為求脫手,發現降價求售情形也不斷攀升,統計永慶房仲網今年至2月底止,網路住宅待售物件開價資訊,全台主要都會區屋主降價情形,都較上季走高。今年首季全台有18.1%網路住宅待售物件出現降價,台北更有31%、新北有25.7%,顯示連串的房市調控政策下,顯示屋主體認到房價修正趨勢已成形,唯有「降價」,才能幫助銷售。而高總價產品更因為是政策壓抑的主要對象,且市場需求較低,降價求售的比重更高,預期修正幅度可能會更大。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">由於,今年全球經濟復甦緩慢,主要國家貨幣政策均以刺激經濟、防通縮為主軸,預期整體超低利率的環境不變,即便美國開始升息,國內央行跟進的幅度有限,所以房價這一兩年大跌不易,而且無論政府怎樣調控房市,稅負如何調整,對於長期持有的自用型買方來說,權益影響極小。建議自用型買方可趁這波政府調控房市,房價回檔,積極進場看購屋。另外,對於交易量,預估今年第2季隨價格修正後,量能將較首季增加,預期今年上半年全台房市將較去年同期「價跌量平」。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">最後,政府持續調控房市,加上房地合一課稅立法箭在弦上,提醒屋主要留意當前市場趨勢。整體而言,目前主要都會區房價均已出現修正,供給量過大、投資買盤重的區域(重劃區、郊區)及產品(高總價豪宅),未來價格下修幅度將會更高,建議屋主不要誤判形勢,應適度汰弱留強,避免政策因素,導致房價走跌,造成資產減損。</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-16870637860607438932015-03-27T22:49:00.000+08:002015-03-27T22:49:05.244+08:00高股息族群 漲贏大盤<h2 id="story_art_title" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei', 微软雅黑体, 'Microsoft JhengHei', 微軟正黑體, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 32px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.3; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 135px 0px 0px; text-align: justify;">
高股息族群 漲贏大盤</h2>
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2015-03-27 04:31:46 經濟日報 記者王皓正/台北報導</h3>
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台股昨日上演9,600點保衛戰,有高股息護身的族群明顯成為資金避風港。 本報系資料庫</h4>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Helvetica, 'Heiti TC', 'Segoe UI', Meiryo, 微軟正黑體; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;">台股昨(26)日震盪回檔,上演9,600點保衛戰,不過,燦星網(4930)、榮成、年興等高股息族群,因股利政策耀眼,現金股息殖利率超過6%,近期股價漲幅全數擊敗大盤,顯示市場對於除權息行情依然存有期待。</span><br />
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美股重挫,台股昨天跳空開低,一度重挫百餘點,台積電一開盤就大跌逾半根停板,所幸在台塑四寶及部分金融股的力挺,大盤指數跌幅縮小,國泰證期顧問處協理簡伯儀表示,大盤先前攻高過9,700點後拉回,市場買盤相對縮手,顯示投資人追價意願不強,觀察技術指標,台股有回檔風險,但下跌空間不大,至少季線9,429點是支撐。</div>
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觀察盤面結構,由於歐美股市近期漲多拉回,台股後市難免震盪整理,未來能否續強,除了個股表現外,觀察指標還包括外資的買賣超動作是否加大,且要提防外資大幅出脫,這也是代表短線漲多警訊。</div>
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若就題材而言,近期高配股配息題材增溫,主因為過去多頭市場多出現除權息行情,市場對公司獲利成長的預期多會促使買盤進駐;而近期企業配股配息的公告陸續發布,在短線大盤整理之際,看好除權息行情的買盤,自然陸續增溫。</div>
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根據統計,截至目前已公布股利政策的上市櫃公司中,預計現金股息殖利率逾6%,且一周以來股價表現強勢的個股,主要分布在電子零組件、網通等電子股,以及電機、紡織、造紙、鋼鐵等傳產股。</div>
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進一步觀察現金股息殖利率,以精英15.2%最佳,燦星網12.5%、華祺10.5%;另外,現金股息殖利率超過8%的個股,還包括霖宏、增你強、根基、錩泰、F-達輝等。至於這些個股的股價走勢,一周以來,包括精英、錩泰、易通展、華祺等,股價漲幅全數超過一成。</div>
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台新投顧總經理莊明書認為,第2季後將是股東會配股、配息旺季,不論電子業或傳統業,因去年獲利持續成長,皆有機會配發股票或現金股利,在預期除權前後個股皆有表現空間的情況下,投資人欲掌握業績題材與除權行情,可於近期趁大盤整理之際,逢低酌量布局。</div>
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圖/經濟日報提供</h4>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-45435759811634824082015-03-24T11:09:00.004+08:002015-03-24T11:09:36.455+08:00唯量是問 成交萎縮 房價恐失守<h1 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #990000; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 20px 5px 10px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">唯量是問 成交萎縮 房價恐失守</span></h1>
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<span style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-size: large;">2015-03-20</span></span><div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25px; padding: 10px 5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">〔記者徐義平/台北報導〕房仲業者昨發布第一季「宅指數」報告,發現2年內有購屋需求民眾,對於未來房價看法偏悲觀,甚至認為價量均會再萎縮。而且回顧1991年至2014年的全國買賣移轉棟數已經出現M字線型,倘若今年全國單月平均買賣移轉棟數無法達到2.6萬棟,預期房市支撐壓力線將失守。</span></div>
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<li style="background: url(http://news.ltn.com.tw/images/li.gif) 0% 50% no-repeat; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-style: none; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://news.ltn.com.tw/photo/business/paper/546749" style="border: 0px; color: #0075a9; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="金融業拆款成交情況表(3/19)" src="http://img.ltn.com.tw/2015/new/mar/20/images/bigPic/400_400/304.jpg" style="border: none; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 300px; padding: 0px;" title="金融業拆款成交情況表(3/19)" /></span></a><div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 18px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px 0px 3px; text-align: left; width: 300px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">金融業拆款成交情況表(3/19)</span></div>
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<li style="background: url(http://news.ltn.com.tw/images/li.gif) 0% 50% no-repeat; border-top-color: rgb(170, 170, 170); border-top-style: dotted; border-width: 1px 0px 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 10px 0px 0px;"><a href="http://news.ltn.com.tw/photo/business/paper/546750" style="border: 0px; color: #0075a9; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="全球重要股市行情(3/19)" src="http://img.ltn.com.tw/2015/new/mar/20/images/bigPic/400_400/305.jpg" style="border: none; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 300px; padding: 0px;" title="全球重要股市行情(3/19)" /></span></a><div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 18px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px 0px 3px; text-align: left; width: 300px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">全球重要股市行情(3/19)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">金鈔行情表(03/19)</span></div>
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<li style="background: url(http://news.ltn.com.tw/images/li.gif) 0% 50% no-repeat; border-top-color: rgb(170, 170, 170); border-top-style: dotted; border-width: 1px 0px 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 10px 0px 0px;"><a href="http://news.ltn.com.tw/photo/business/paper/546752" style="border: 0px; color: #0075a9; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="1991-2014年全國買賣移轉棟數M型走勢" src="http://img.ltn.com.tw/2015/new/mar/20/images/bigPic/400_400/307.jpg" style="border: none; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 300px; padding: 0px;" title="1991-2014年全國買賣移轉棟數M型走勢" /></span></a><div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 18px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px 0px 3px; text-align: left; width: 300px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">1991-2014年全國買賣移轉棟數M型走勢</span></div>
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<h4 style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; padding: 10px 5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">購屋者對未來悲觀</span></h4>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25px; padding: 10px 5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">根據中信房屋調查,1991年至2014年全國買賣移轉棟數的變化,已經出現M字線型,而且2014年全年買賣移轉棟數32萬0598件,與1992年全年為31萬2796件接近,假設以1992年當作基期,全國移轉棟數單月平均需達2.6萬件,才能顯示房市交易低點已過。換句話說,若今年全國每月移轉棟數未達2.6萬棟時, 房市交易可能就此一蹶不振 。</span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25px; padding: 10px 5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">中信房屋副總劉天仁認為,要解除這條壓力線,房地合一稅改將扮演關鍵角色,若能夠在民眾希望的方式和社會公平正義之間取得平衡點,儘早拍板落地實施,那麼將有利於2015年房地產市場發展。</span></div>
<h4 style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; padding: 10px 5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">房地合一定案 買氣可增</span></h4>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25px; padding: 10px 5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">不過,住商不動產企劃研究室主任徐佳馨則分析,在2016年大選影響下,下半年市場買氣雖然很難期待,但在某些大型個案交屋的狀況下,帳面上數字仍有支撐,不過只要房地合一政策一天不塵埃落定,觀望氛圍仍揮之不去,買氣自然無法打開。</span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25px; padding: 10px 5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">因房地合一稅改目前朝向輕稅趨勢,信義房屋企劃研究室專案經理曾敬德指出,未來房市將呈現持平發展,若無立即現金需求的屋主也不會輕易出售房屋;不過,目前市場投資疲弱,房價也沒上漲動能。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="" src="http://img.ltn.com.tw/Upload/liveNews/BigPic/600_phpmUlFMH.jpg" style="border: none; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" title="政大地政系教授張金張金鶚認為,消費者不應該助長不合理房價,保持觀望態度,才讓房價變得更合理。(本報資料照)" /><div style="border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 20px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; width: 596.59375px;">
政大地政系教授張金張金鶚認為,消費者不應該助長不合理房價,保持觀望態度,才讓房價變得更合理。(本報資料照)</div>
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<span style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-size: large;">2015-03-23 10:25</span></span><div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25px; padding: 10px 5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">〔本報訊〕日前房仲業者的調查指出,全台房市降溫,預估今年將下跌10%至15%,但政大地政系教授張金張金鶚認為,房仲一反常態看衰房市,有諸多原因,但無論如何,消費者都不應該助長不合理房價,保持觀望態度,才讓房價變得更合理。</span></div>
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<li style="background: url(http://news.ltn.com.tw/images/li.gif) 0% 50% no-repeat; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-style: none; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://news.ltn.com.tw/photo/business/breakingnews/1265128_2" style="border: 0px; color: #0075a9; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="張金鶚認為,房仲若再不改變態度,只會讓買氣更差,反而害了自己,他們其實是「被迫實話實說」。(資料照,記者林耀文攝)" src="http://img.ltn.com.tw/2015/new/mar/23/images/bigPic/400_400/phpRhENsu.jpg" style="border: none; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 300px; padding: 0px;" title="張金鶚認為,房仲若再不改變態度,只會讓買氣更差,反而害了自己,他們其實是「被迫實話實說」。(資料照,記者林耀文攝)" /></span></a><div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 18px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px 0px 3px; text-align: left; width: 300px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">張金鶚認為,房仲若再不改變態度,只會讓買氣更差,反而害了自己,他們其實是「被迫實話實說」。(資料照,記者林耀文攝)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">張金鶚今日在《中國時報》投書指出,過去業者為了提高買氣,一向看好房市,但如今卻改口看跌,反映了房仲若再不改變態度,只會讓買氣更差,反而害了自己,他們其實是「被迫實話實說」。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">尤其目前社會普遍認為房屋相關稅率偏低,房仲一方面得降價減少持有成本,另一方面也期盼政府「打房」政策態度放軟,「房地合一稅」從輕發落。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">張金鶚指出,「市場力量」仍是決定房市不景氣的主因,購屋者其實擁有了決定房價的集體力量,若還堅持房價只漲不跌而進場,不僅可能會買貴,還會成為不合理房價的幫兇。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">他認為,當前購屋者最應該做的,就是不要進場購屋,成為「房價合理化的力量」,讓房價持續下跌,最終才可能利己又利人。</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-7190117038421565252015-03-24T10:52:00.000+08:002015-03-24T10:52:19.070+08:00時論─房仲:跌定了!你認為呢<div class="page_container stack clear-fix newspapers_ad" style="background-color: white; border: 0px none; font-family: Verdana, Arial, PMingLiU, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 16px; margin: 0px auto; min-height: 700px; outline: none 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; width: 980px; zoom: 1;">
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<div class="addthis_jumbo_share" data-title="時論─房仲:跌定了!你認為呢" data-url="http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20150323000362-260109" style="border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<img alt="永慶不動產發布「2015年Q1趨勢前瞻報告」,在調查1056位民眾後,顯示對房價看跌比例持續擴大,未來一年看跌的人高達52%,是最近13季以來最高。(本報資料照片)" class="h" data-aspect-ratio="1.8222222222222222" data-height="360" data-width="656" src="http://img.chinatimes.com/newsphoto/2015-03-18/656/b91a00_p_01_02.jpg" style="border: 0px; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 645px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;" title="永慶:上半年房價跌定了" /></div>
<figcaption style="background-color: #efefef; border: 0px none; color: #6d6d6d; font-size: 0.9em; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 10px 15px; word-break: break-all;">永慶不動產發布「2015年Q1趨勢前瞻報告」,在調查1056位民眾後,顯示對房價看跌比例持續擴大,未來一年看跌的人高達52%,是最近13季以來最高。(本報資料照片)</figcaption></figure></div>
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最近房仲業者根據他們自己所作的問卷調查,發現民眾看跌全台未來1年房市比重超過5成,創3年多以來最高,其中,看跌雙北房市比重逼近6成,全台房市從北到南「轉冷」趨勢全面成形。此外,全台買賣移轉棟數僅32萬棟,也是近12年新低,台北市還創17年來新低。另外,購屋貸款年增率從去年7月起開始出現衰退走勢,而房貸利率也開始逐步調高。房仲業者因此大膽預測,今年房價「跌定了」!跌幅在10%~15%左右。</div>
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業者被迫實話實說</div>
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過去業者對房市都沒有悲觀的立場,一向鼓吹房市看多,以利銷售。如今,卻主動一反常態,睹定看空房市「價跌量縮」,令人意外!值得分析探究。</div>
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首先,這反映當前房市的確下滑明顯,無法再予以掩飾。房仲業者再不點破作多假象,在賣方口袋仍深,不願意鬆口降價;而在買方看跌且無力購屋情況下,買賣雙方僵持,無法成交。如此受害最大的就是房仲業者,因此在「沒有賣不掉的房子,只有賣不掉的價格」鐵律下,不得不向房市開第一槍,以求自保。這是業者被迫再不「實話實說」,結果會是害了自己所致。</div>
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其次,當前房市的不景氣,亦可以從過去台北市這兩年所推動的稅制改革看出端倪。長期以來,社會普遍認同台灣的房地持有成本與交易成本過低,造成房價上漲的重要原因,因此,台北市全力推動相關稅賦,包括持有成本的囤房稅、豪宅稅、新建房屋評定現值、路段率等以及交易成本的土地增值稅等。當時提出並未受到建築業者的反對,主要是業者認為房市景氣還不錯,這些成本未來都是消費者要負擔,沒想到如今房市銷售不佳,全部成本變成業者要負擔,因此,最近大力反彈。可以預期未來建築業為降低持有及交易成本,將盡速脫手,降價也是不得不的選擇。</div>
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不景氣主因 來自市場</div>
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第三,業者也試圖透過房市不景氣的喊話,藉此換取政府的重視。如此可以要求政府不能再加重「打房」政策,包括目前正在研擬的「房地合一稅」宜輕不宜重,或已實施的持有與交易稅賦,都要檢討從輕發落。至於政府是否會受此脅迫影響,讓房價看回不回,導致延緩下跌?還是政府反而應藉此機會,給予臨門一腳,讓全民都認為不合理的房價,逐步導正?</div>
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第四,持平而論,房市真正不景氣的主要因素還是來自「市場力量」,所謂供、需、價、量的交互作用。房市經過十多年不合理的景氣擴張,產生房價過高、基本自住需求無力負擔,空屋過多、供過於求現象越顯嚴重。因此,房屋成交數量明顯萎縮,特別金融業者擔心市場風險也逐漸緊縮貸款,房市情勢逐漸逆轉,造成當前房價不得不低頭現象。</div>
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最後,面對當前房價剛開始要下跌的轉折時點,一般購屋者應如何自處?當然房價的漲跌取決於購屋者集體力量,你可以認為房價只漲不跌,業者說法不可信,現在不買以後會後悔。如此購屋結果,你不知是否會買貴了,但確定會扮演支撐不合理房價的力量,可能產生「損人不利己」。或者你同意上述分析,房價終將下跌;還是你對未來房價漲跌不確定,不論何者,你都應該選擇觀望,不進場購屋。如此不購屋結果,你不知是否會買到便宜,但確定可以盡份促使房價合理化的力量,可能變成「利人利己」。購屋者請自己決策負責!(作者為政大地政系特聘教授)</div>
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<span class="num" style="border: 0px none; color: #cc0000; float: left; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;">8/10</span></div>
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<li class="clear-fix even first" style="border-style: solid none none; border-top-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-width: 0px; display: block; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 15px 0px; position: relative; zoom: 1;"><h3 style="border: 0px none; color: #333333; display: table-cell; float: left; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin: -3px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; width: 241px;">
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<div class="social_idxbox stack clear-fix" style="background-color: white; border: 0px none; font-family: Verdana, Arial, PMingLiU, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 16px; margin: 15px auto; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; width: 980px; zoom: 1;">
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<li class="weishi odd" style="border: 0px none; float: left; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 16px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://weishi.com/u/24699409" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/social_index_icon.jpg) -700px 0px no-repeat scroll transparent; border-radius: 6px; border: 0px none; color: #5d4370; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: -9999px; width: 50px;" target="_blank" title="微視-中時電子報">微視-中時電子報</a></li>
<li class="weibo even" style="border: 0px none; float: left; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 16px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://weibo.com/chinatimessocial" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/social_index_icon.jpg) -350px 0px no-repeat scroll transparent; border-radius: 6px; border: 0px none; color: #5d4370; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: -9999px; width: 50px;" target="_blank" title="weibo-中時電子報">weibo-中時電子報</a></li>
<li class="tudou odd" style="border: 0px none; float: left; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 16px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://www.tudou.com/home/chinatimes" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/social_index_icon.jpg) -400px 0px no-repeat scroll transparent; border-radius: 6px; border: 0px none; color: #5d4370; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: -9999px; width: 50px;" target="_blank" title="tudou-中時電子報">tudou-中時電子報</a></li>
<li class="Snapchat even" style="border: 0px none; float: left; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 16px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://www.chinatimes.com/handheld/snapchat" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/social_index_icon.jpg) -450px 0px no-repeat scroll transparent; border-radius: 6px; border: 0px none; color: #5d4370; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: -9999px; width: 50px;" target="_blank" title="Snapchat-中時電子報">Snapchat-中時電子報</a></li>
<li class="Line odd" style="border: 0px none; float: left; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 16px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://www.chinatimes.com/handheld/line" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/social_index_icon.jpg) -300px 0px no-repeat scroll transparent; border-radius: 6px; border: 0px none; color: #5d4370; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: -9999px; width: 50px;" target="_blank" title="LINE-中時電子報">LINE-中時電子報</a></li>
<li class="Pinterest even" style="border: 0px none; float: left; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 16px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://www.pinterest.com/chinatimes/" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/social_index_icon.jpg) 0px 0px no-repeat scroll transparent; border-radius: 6px; border: 0px none; color: #5d4370; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: -9999px; width: 50px;" target="_blank" title="Pinterest-中時電子報">Pinteres-中時電子報t</a></li>
<li class="Flickr odd" style="border: 0px none; float: left; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 16px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/chinatimes/" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/social_index_icon.jpg) -200px 0px no-repeat scroll transparent; border-radius: 6px; border: 0px none; color: #5d4370; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: -9999px; width: 50px;" target="_blank" title="Flickr-中時電子報">Flickr-中時電子報</a></li>
<li class="linkedin even" style="border: 0px none; float: left; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 16px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://www.chinatimes.com/handheld/LinkedIn" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/social_index_icon.jpg) -500px 0px no-repeat scroll transparent; border-radius: 6px; border: 0px none; color: #5d4370; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: -9999px; width: 50px;" target="_blank" title="LinkedIn-中時電子報">LinkedIn-中時電子報</a></li>
<li class="tumblr odd" style="border: 0px none; float: left; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 16px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://chinatimessocial.tumblr.com/" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/social_index_icon.jpg) -150px 0px no-repeat scroll transparent; border-radius: 6px; border: 0px none; color: #5d4370; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-indent: -9999px; width: 50px;" target="_blank" title="tumblr-中時電子報">tumblr-中時電子報</a></li>
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<li class="odd" style="border: 1px solid transparent; float: left; height: 111px; list-style-type: none; margin: -8px 8px 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 8px 0px 0px; width: 102px;"><a href="http://www.chinatimes.com/handheld/want-want-mobile" style="border: 0px none; color: #495563; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" title="旺旺中時"><span class="wwm" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/footer_m_02.png) -6px 0px no-repeat scroll; border: 0px none; display: block; height: 87px; margin: 0px auto; outline: none 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; width: 87px;"></span><div style="border: 0px none; margin-top: -5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; width: 102px;">
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<li class="even first" style="border: 0px none; float: left; font-size: 13px; line-height: 2.5; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 5px 5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; width: 170px;"><a href="http://www.facebook.com/CTfans" style="border: 0px none; color: #333333; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span class="icon fb" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/ico_cti.png) -311px -230px no-repeat scroll transparent; border: 0px none; display: block; float: left; height: 32px; margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; width: 32px;"></span>中時電子報<span class="num" style="border: 0px none; color: #990000; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;">499,989</span></a></li>
<li class="odd" style="border: 0px none; float: left; font-size: 13px; line-height: 2.5; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 5px 5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; width: 170px;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/user/ChinaTimes" style="border: 0px none; color: #333333; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span class="icon youtube" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/ico_cti.png) -407px -230px no-repeat scroll transparent; border: 0px none; display: block; float: left; height: 32px; margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; width: 32px;"></span>訂閱人數<span class="num" style="border: 0px none; color: #990000; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;">635,740</span></a></li>
<li class="even" style="border: 0px none; float: left; font-size: 13px; line-height: 2.5; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 5px 5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; width: 170px;"><a href="https://plus.google.com/+%E4%B8%AD%E6%99%82%E9%9B%BB%E5%AD%90%E5%A0%B1/posts" style="border: 0px none; color: #333333; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span class="icon google" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/ico_cti.png) -375px -230px no-repeat scroll transparent; border: 0px none; display: block; float: left; height: 32px; margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; width: 32px;"></span>中時電子報<span class="num" style="border: 0px none; color: #990000; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;">386,186</span></a></li>
<li class="odd" style="border: 0px none; float: left; font-size: 13px; line-height: 2.5; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 5px 5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; width: 170px;"><a href="http://e.weibo.com/showbizct" style="border: 0px none; color: #333333; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span class="icon weibo" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/ico_cti.png) -439px -230px no-repeat scroll transparent; border: 0px none; display: block; float: left; height: 32px; margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; width: 32px;"></span>新影視頻道<span class="num" style="border: 0px none; color: #990000; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;">393,107</span></a></li>
<li class="even last" style="border: 0px none; float: left; font-size: 13px; line-height: 2.5; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px 0px 5px 5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; width: 170px;"><a href="http://t.qq.com/chinatimes-tw" style="border: 0px none; color: #333333; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; outline: none medium; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span class="icon tencent" style="background: url(http://cache.chinatimes.com/images/ico_cti.png) -471px -230px no-repeat scroll transparent; border: 0px none; display: block; float: left; height: 32px; margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; width: 32px;"></span>中時電子報<span class="num" style="border: 0px none; color: #990000; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px;">45,622</span></a></li>
</ul>
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</footer>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-75517756304168628482015-03-17T19:13:00.001+08:002015-03-17T19:13:15.744+08:00永慶:上半年房價跌定了<div class="newsContent bg_newsPage_Lblue" style="background: url(http://imgcache.cnyes.com/cnews/img/bg_newspage_Lblue.gif) 0% 0% repeat-y rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: PMingliu; height: 1069.80004882813px; margin: 0px; padding: 15px 15px 0px;">
<h1 style="clear: both; font-family: 'Microsoft JhengHei', 微軟中黑體, 微软雅黑, 'Microsoft Yahei', 微軟正黑體, PMingliu; line-height: 28px; margin: 0px 0px 2px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">永慶:上半年房價跌定了</span></h1>
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<span style="font-size: large;">鉅亨網新聞中心 (來源:中廣新聞網) 2015-03-17 17:43 </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">永慶房產集團發布房市最新趨勢報告,今(104)年上半年全台房市交易將呈「價跌量平」,精華區交易回溫,然而供給量大的郊區面臨賣壓修正,政策打壓下,豪宅降價壓力加重。(黃悅嬌報導)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">永慶房產事業群總經理葉凌棋表示,國內房市表現主要受利率、貸款成數與政策影響;全球經濟步向「新平庸」,即使外界對美國有升息預期,但央行總裁彭淮南日前已透露台灣未必跟隨美國升息步調,他大膽預言未來1、2年內,台灣不會升息。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">政策面部份,儘管財政部提出房地合一實價課稅方案朝輕稅化,但政府近四年來祭出的各項房市相關政策無一鬆綁,如央行對特定地區高總價不動產限制貸款成數措施未變、地方政府調高房屋持有稅等等,在大環境政策格局未變情況下,房地合一輕稅化也無法扭轉民眾對於房市前景的看法。今年第二季房價修正情況更趨明顯,全台房價跌定了。『上半年全台房市交易價跌量平,我主持這會議第一次勇敢告訴各位房價會下跌,我看是跌定了。』</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">業者認為,現今市場以自住、換屋為市場主流,房市交易將回到成熟區及精華區為主力的交易型態,供給量大、投資比重高的郊區、重劃區將面臨賣壓,預估將有百分之十到十五跌幅。在限貸加息措施持續下,豪宅將有更明顯跌價空間。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">(永慶房產集團提供)</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-88471912514640940692015-03-16T19:38:00.002+08:002015-03-16T19:38:38.784+08:00開春房市摔 降價物件增<div id="story_body" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(215, 215, 215); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #444444; font-family: Helvetica, 'Heiti TC', 'Segoe UI', Meiryo, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 28px 68px 32px; position: relative; text-align: justify;">
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<h2 id="story_art_title" style="color: #222222; font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei', 微软雅黑体, 'Microsoft JhengHei', 微軟正黑體, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.3; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 135px 0px 0px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">開春房市摔 降價物件增</span></h2>
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<h3 style="color: #999999; float: left; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px 20px 0px 0px; padding: 6px 0px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">2015-03-07 14:46:40 聯合晚報 記者游智文/台北報導</span></h3>
<iframe frameborder="0" height="38" id="mySave" scrolling="no" src="http://house.udn.com/sfclient/mySave.html" style="display: block; float: left;" width="90"></iframe><a class="explanation only_web" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://house.udn.com/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -179px -959px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #0054a6; display: inline-block; float: left; height: 28px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline; width: 28px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b></b></span></a></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">受房地合一課稅影響,加上過年因素,各地主要房市區今年開春後交易量都重挫,其中又以高雄市鳳山、新北市樹林、土城、新店摔得最重,今年1、2月較去年同期萎縮達四至五成。房仲業表示,交易量如果遲未回升,降價物件會增多,購屋人可多注意。</span></div>
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<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">房地合一課稅議題在今年1月強力發酵,市場買氣急凍,雖然財政部在1月底提出「輕稅」版本,但仍無法解凍,加上2月逢春節、228連假,包括台北市、新北市、高雄市交易量都破底寫下歷史新低;六都中,僅台南和去年維持平盤。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">台灣房屋統計各地主要房市區今年1、2月交易量,高雄鳳山區量縮最明顯,去年1、2月鳳山區房屋交易量達1600件,但今年只剩735件,減幅超過一半,達54%。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">台灣房屋智庫執行長劉怡蓉表示,鳳山區前兩年交易火熱,房價漲幅逾兩成;隨著房價來到相對高點,自住型買家紛紛轉移陣地,再加上房地合一政策因素,投資風氣快速消退,買氣因此一瀉千里。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">她表示,購屋人除了可注意鳳山房價變化外,官方買賣移轉資料顯示,楠梓是高雄房市新熱區,今年1、2月交易量達670件,較去年同期逆勢成長25%,後市看好。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">大台北地區主要房市區中,則以新北市的樹林、土城、新店區買氣衰退最嚴重,其中樹林、土城較去年交易量萎縮都逼近五成,新店則達四成。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">劉怡蓉表示,樹林、土城原是大台北民眾首購熱區,但隨新成屋房價站上四、五字頭,已對首購族構成門檻,新店市區倚靠捷運,房價站上高原,但在居住品質改善有限下,軌道經濟效益無力支撐,交易重摔。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">台北市今年開春交易量減少較多的前三名分別是松山、北投與中正區,台灣房屋分析,松山區、中正區主要是因松山線通車分流效應,屋主心態高,交易不易媒合所致。由於三區平均一個月交易量都不到200件,部份屋主可能鬆動,購屋人可多注意急售、降價物件。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">今年1、2月交易量重跌行政區資料來源:各市政府地政局、台灣房屋 製表:游智文</span></h4>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-18471012419825050412015-03-15T17:34:00.000+08:002015-03-15T17:34:18.000+08:005年來首見下修!北市房「只漲不跌」神話破滅<div class="yom-mod yom-art-hd" id="mediaarticlehead" style="background-color: white; border-color: rgb(52, 78, 127); border-top-style: none; font-family: arial, STHeiti, pmingliu, sans-serif; line-height: 16.0030002593994px; margin: 12px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; zoom: 1;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">5年來首見下修!北市房「只漲不跌」神話破滅</span></h1>
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<span style="font-size: large;">5年來首見下修!北市房「只漲不跌」神話破滅</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">被稱為「天龍國」的台北市,房價連年高漲,但根據平面媒體調查,去年第四季台北市房價,比前一季小跌0.54%,是金融海嘯以來第一次下修,就連新北市新成屋推案,也連續四季下跌。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">走進中山區小宅,方正隔局、2扇窗戶,不到9坪,屋齡27年,賣了半年還沒成交,屋主乾脆自費裝潢,每坪開價降5萬,待價而沽。蛋黃區找不到新主人,北市「只漲不跌」神話恐怕破滅,根據調查,去年第四季北市房價,比前一季下跌0.54%,是金融海嘯來首度下挫,業者透露是房地合一稅改惹禍</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">台北市房價反轉,跌破外界眼鏡,根據內政部統計,新北市新成屋,去年第四季均價下跌0.7%,連續四季下,財長說明白,房產無力再衝高價,連北市高價王寶座也鬆動,大安、信義區去年房價,緩步上漲,價差縮小到1.8萬。稅改未定、房市前景未明,北市房價鬆動,閉著眼睛隨便買隨便賺的年代,恐怕成為過去式。</span></div>
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<div class="yom-mod yom-sentiment-vote textimg-m textimg-s text-img-s" id="mediasentiment" style="border-color: rgb(52, 78, 127); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 3px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; position: relative; zoom: 1;">
<div class="bd" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; zoom: 1;">
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<span style="color: white; font-weight: bold; position: relative; z-index: 3;"><span style="font-size: large;">看完覺得</span></span></div>
<form action="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/" class="yom-sentiment-form" id="sentimentform" method="POST" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<ul class="yom-sentiment-menu clearfix" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; zoom: 1;">
<li class="informative first" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="informative"><a alt="實用" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="2" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:c845b136-e77c-35b9-99a8-07c9f3bfeaa3;act:informative;slk:informative;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=informative&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -691px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
實用</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="warm" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="warm"><a alt="感人" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="4" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:c845b136-e77c-35b9-99a8-07c9f3bfeaa3;act:warm;slk:warm;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=warm&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -1027px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
感人</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="happy" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="happy"><a alt="開心" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="6" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:c845b136-e77c-35b9-99a8-07c9f3bfeaa3;act:happy;slk:happy;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=happy&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -649px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
開心</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="odd" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="odd"><a alt="超扯" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="8" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:c845b136-e77c-35b9-99a8-07c9f3bfeaa3;act:odd;slk:odd;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=odd&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -775px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
超扯</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="boring" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="boring"><a alt="無聊" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="10" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:c845b136-e77c-35b9-99a8-07c9f3bfeaa3;act:boring;slk:boring;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=boring&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -817px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
無聊</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="worried" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="worried"><a alt="害怕" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="12" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:c845b136-e77c-35b9-99a8-07c9f3bfeaa3;act:worried;slk:worried;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=worried&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -1111px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
害怕</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="depressing" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="depressing"><a alt="難過" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="14" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:c845b136-e77c-35b9-99a8-07c9f3bfeaa3;act:depressing;slk:depressing;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=depressing&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 0px -733px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
難過</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="angry last" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="angry"><a alt="火大" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="16" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:c845b136-e77c-35b9-99a8-07c9f3bfeaa3;act:angry;slk:angry;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=angry&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -859px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
火大</div>
</span></a></label></li>
</ul>
</form>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-49789454472749871312015-03-15T12:58:00.004+08:002015-03-15T12:58:42.029+08:00房價鐵板區變軟?北市新屋價格下跌<h1 style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #990000; font-family: Arial, 新細明體, Helvetica, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 20px 5px 10px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">房價鐵板區變軟?北市新屋價格下跌</span></h1>
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<span style="border: 0px; color: #777777; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-size: large;">2015-03-13</span></span><div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 25px; padding: 10px 5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">〔記者徐義平/台北報導〕北市預售屋與新屋成交價出現金融海嘯後首跌!業者統計,去年第四季預售屋、新屋的每坪均價約92.4萬元,相較去年第三季每坪約92.9萬元,每坪下跌5000元,微跌約0.54%;再對照房仲業者日前發布的中古屋房價指數,北市去年房價跌幅約3.3%,顯示房市正在翻轉,過去人稱房價鐵板區的北市,預售屋、中古屋房價難得雙雙出現下跌。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">住展雜誌企研室經理何世昌分析,去年第四季北市房價出現疲軟,推測與持續累積的房地合一稅改壓力有關,買賣雙方均對房市前景不明的情況感到憂慮。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">住商不動產企劃研究室主任徐佳馨則認為 ,政府狂放打房風向球影響市況,加上銀根緊縮難墊價 ,不少屋主願意降價,應是修正主因。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">值得注意的是,北市最燙金行政區的龍頭爭霸戰則愈演愈烈,向來穩坐最高房價王座的大安區,與信義區房價差距正逐年縮小,2013年度大安區相較信義區,每坪均價高出約2.6萬元,去年則縮小差距,每坪房價差距拉近至1.7萬元。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,去年第四季桃園市房價也走跌,預售屋、新屋每坪均價約24.9萬元,相較第三季每坪均價約25.3萬元,每坪下跌約4000元,跌幅約1.58%。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">反觀新北市房價去年則連續四季成長,何世昌解釋,新北市各行政區跟漲效應延續,尤其是鄰近北市、相對低單價的行政區,房價跟漲態勢最為猛烈,最具代表性的是汐止區;因與汐止接壤的內湖、南港房價已高不可攀,汐止開出4字頭單價獲得購屋者青睞,去年全年房價漲幅逾2成。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">信義房屋不動產企研室專案經理曾敬德則表示,此波房價幾乎是從蛋黃區先修正,主要是因為北市的豪宅稅大幅拉高豪宅的房屋評定現值,導致持有與交易成本大增,幾乎所有政策都針對市中心高房價區,導致豪宅市場買氣大受影響。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">中壢工業地 4.38億標脫</span></h4>
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<span style="font-size: large;">〔記者徐義平/台北報導〕第一太平戴維斯接受地主委託標售中壢工業區約2323.2坪工業地,最終以4.38億元標脫,溢價率約2%,每坪標脫單價約18.86萬元,得標人為金屬加工業者,目的是擴廠需求。商仲業者指出,即便面對央行祭出工業區土地限貸令,不過因經濟好轉,傳產業者有擴廠需求,出手標地意願仍在。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">第一太平戴維斯資深經理丁紋甄表示,甫標脫的工業區土地計有15組業者領標,包括7家在地傳產業者、4家資產管理公司與多組個人投資,若分析比重,仍以擴廠需求占比較高。</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-78223444293295537812015-03-15T12:55:00.000+08:002015-03-15T12:55:00.035+08:00統計:捷運降價宅 中和新蘆線物件多<div id="story_body" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(215, 215, 215); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #444444; font-family: Helvetica, 'Heiti TC', 'Segoe UI', Meiryo, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 28px 68px 32px; position: relative; text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">統計:捷運降價宅 中和新蘆線物件多</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2015-03-14 12:30:11 中央社 台北14日電</span></h3>
<iframe frameborder="0" height="38" id="mySave" scrolling="no" src="http://udn.com/sfclient/mySave.html" style="display: block; float: left;" width="90"></iframe><a class="explanation only_web" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://udn.com/static/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -179px -959px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #0054a6; display: inline-block; float: left; height: 28px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline; width: 28px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b></b></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">好房網推出最新「捷運降價宅」統計,針對大台北五大捷運網絡,沿線1公里內屋主降低開價物件,結果發現中和新蘆線有446件降價物件最多,其餘4大捷運線物件大多逾250件。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">好房網「降價捷運宅」中,以五大捷運地圖方式列出屋主開價降低物件,統計發現,以中和新蘆線屋主開價降低物件數最多,高達446件,降幅約10%至47.3%,其中菜寮站和台北橋站屋主降價意願較高。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">好房網總編輯吳光中分析,降價數量排名前十名站點,中和新蘆線共有5站入榜,淡水信義線及松山新店線各有兩站,板南線一站入榜。中和新蘆線包含中和線、新莊線、蘆洲線。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">吳光中分析,捷運降價宅以中和新蘆線上「菜寮站」及「台北橋站」降價物件最多,比率最高。主要是三重市發展早,區域內生活機能完善豐富,「菜寮站」周邊生活機能優越,加上忠孝橋、中興橋、重新橋、捷運新莊線、機場線的「三橋雙捷運」優勢支撐,查詢度有一定水準。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">吳光中表示,捷運聯開案公共住宅事件後,有可能影響周邊屋主降低開價心態,擔心公共住宅租金低廉影響區域房價。不過,主要影響房價原因仍以地段、交通建設及生活機能為主,社會住宅的租金雖然優惠,但戶數占比仍低,預期對周邊房價影響不大。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">另外,捷運降價宅的文湖線有270件,降幅達10%到30.4%;淡水信義線有283件,降幅達10%到41.5%;板南線254件,降幅達10%到43.6;松山新店線有253件,降幅達10%到41.5%。</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">中和新蘆線除「菜寮站」和「台北橋站」降價物件多之外,「三和國中站」有33件,「三重國小站」有32件,「中山國小站」有27件;淡水信義線的「雙連站」有29件,「民權西路站」有28件;松山新店線的「松江南京站」有28件,「南京東路站」有25件;板南線的「府中站」有25件。</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-85800699721561435632015-03-03T23:22:00.003+08:002015-03-03T23:24:48.404+08:00海外資金大幅流回新興市場 分析師稱現在為最佳買點<table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="yui-text-left" id="aritcletable" style="background-color: white; color: black; width: 440px;"><tbody>
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<span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">2015/03/03 18:55</span> <span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">鉅亨網 鉅亨網楊智超 綜合報導</span><br />
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投資人開始重回新興市場的懷抱 (圖: AFP)</div>
去年 12 月新興市場資產表現慘淡,資金大幅外流,但隨著日本和歐洲央行擴大量化寬鬆 (QE),資金開始流回新興市場的懷抱,分析師認為現在正是重回新興市場的最佳時機。<br />
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根據《CNBC》報導,匯豐銀行 (HSBC) 分析師 Himanshu Malik 指出,新興市場去年 12 月資金外流達 85 億美元,受到嚴重打擊,但現在日本和歐洲央行紛紛擴大 QE 為市場提供了更大流動性,因此投資人又陸續重回新興市場的懷抱,不過這一次他們對於選擇的標的則更加謹慎。根據 HSBC 的統計指出,1月份新興市場債券的投資金額增加,其中有超過 10 億美元的金額來自日本散戶投資人,不過不只是ㄧ般投資人,就連機構的專業投資者也一致看好新興市場未來發展,在2月的統計報告中有 74.4% 的投資人對新興市場發展感到樂觀。<br />
1 月份日本散戶投入了 4.28 億美元至巴西債市,也投資了總計 5.16 億美元到新加坡、墨西哥、印度和印尼債市。在已開發國家中,投入美國債市的金額更是高達 9.53 億美元。野村證券外匯分析師 Motoki Kike 認為,日本投資人因為預期日元將持續貶值,因此將資金提前移往海外以尋求更好的報酬。野村證券預估日元兌美元在年底前將貶至 125 元。<br />
此外根據調查,約有 44% 的投資人認為目前投資新興市場的金額過少,7 個亞洲的新興市場在去年 12 月共流出了 58.5 億美元,但今年以來累積共流入了 99.4 億美元,顯示出投資人對新興市場的的樂觀氛圍。<br />
在股票市場方面,分析師也一樣樂觀看待,預估新興市場股市在接下來幾個月有望持續增溫。目前新興市場的股票價格看來比已開發國家來得更吸引人,MSCI 新興市場指數的本益比目前約比 MSCI 全球指數低 5 點,相比之下顯得較被低估,分析師因而認為現在正是全面重回新興市場的好時機。<br />
不過並不是所有新興市場資產都受到投資人青睞,機構的專業投資人對於新興市場匯率走勢依然悲觀,新興市場的貨幣在過去幾個月來不斷貶值。單以 2 月開始算起,巴西雷亞爾和印尼盾兌美元就分別貶值達 12% 和 4%,貶幅相當嚴重。在美元強勢的時期,新興市場貨幣短期內恐難有好表現。<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">資金充沛 金髮女孩經濟火熱</span></h1>
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<span style="font-size: large;">日、美、中金髮女孩經濟</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> 迎接金羊年來臨,投資人一定非常關心新的一年景氣展望如何?經濟學家在描述景氣的時候,常說到「停滯性通膨」、「通縮」等等名詞。在這裏要介紹另一個名詞「金髮女孩經濟」(Goldilocks Economy),這是經濟學家在1990年代,以格林童話故事《金髮女孩與三隻熊》,來形容當時克林頓總統執政時期美國經濟。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> 這故事的內容是:有一位金髮女孩走到3隻熊的家裏(熊不在家),看到餐桌上有3碗粥。一碗太熱,她不吃;一碗太冷,她也不吃;她最後只挑不冷不熱的那碗來吃,吃完後便睡一頓香甜的覺。那時美國經濟是處於高成長、低通膨的時代,後來「金髮女孩經濟」就被比喻為景氣溫和復甦、但通膨又不過熱的好時光。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> 統計過去歷史經驗,日本、美國及中國大陸都曾經歷過「金髮女孩經濟」的時期,而當時的股市都是呈現多頭牛市的走勢,漲幅也是非常驚人,「金髮女孩經濟」是投資人夢寐以求的投資良機。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> 現任Fed主席葉倫去年2月接任時,就曾經提及「金髮女孩經濟」,既然「金髮女孩經濟」是克林頓時代的表徵之一,現在葉倫掌控Fed大位,再度複製克林頓總統時代的美好經濟時光,自然相對駕輕就熟。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> 2015年美國經濟持續復甦,且通膨率仍處低檔,若以經濟成長率和通膨率來比較,目前的經濟情勢足以媲美當年;加上歐洲央行(ECB)也加入量化寬鬆(QE)灑錢的行列,目前堪稱是人類歷史上最大的資金潮,資金動能充沛,可望為股市再添動能。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> 在台股方面,主要機構對台灣2015年GDP成長率預估,其區間落於3.3~3.8%內,都優於2014年,2015年台灣景氣穩健復甦可以期待,且通膨率受惠於油價走跌,也處於低值,台灣也可望迎來一波「金髮女孩經濟」的投資契機。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> 根據2000年以來經驗顯示,當台灣該年GDP成長率較去年成長時,該年指數高點、低點必定比去年的高點、低點為高。也就是說,從目前2015年台灣GDP成長率來看,2015年指數高低點區間會高於2014年8230點~9593點的區間。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> 在羊年台股的走勢研判上,2015年上半年在全球資金持續寬鬆下,仍可望有一波資金行情;但隨著Fed升息時間的逼近(我們預期Fed將於2015年下半年啟動升息),全球股市面臨較大的震盪,台股也會拉回修正;但隨著升息的干擾結束,配合全球景氣的持續復甦,下半年指數打底整理後,可望再展開一波景氣回升行情。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> 綜合上述,預估台股2015年四季基調分別為緩步盤堅(9,300~9,600)、震盪修正(9,600~8,600)、打底整理(8,400~9,000)、反彈衝高(9,000~9,800,可能10,000)四個主軸,2015年全年指數高低點預估將介於8,400~10,000點之間,甚至有機會上看10,500點。其中低點出現在第二季及第三季,高點指數出現在第一季及第四季。(吳姿瑩)</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-81486380199465958882015-02-23T11:06:00.004+08:002015-02-23T11:06:49.590+08:00台股24日開紅盤 三名師喊發<div id="story_body" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(215, 215, 215); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #444444; font-family: Helvetica, 'Heiti TC', 'Segoe UI', Meiryo, 微軟正黑體; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 28px 68px 32px; position: relative; text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">台股24日開紅盤 三名師喊發</span></h2>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2015-02-23 00:56:12 經濟日報 記者王皓正、周克威/台北報導</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;">台股將在明(24)日開紅盤,由於封關期間希臘債務等消息面變數鈍化,加上這段期間國際股市反彈、美股續創新高,外資可望延續封關前的買盤力道,帶動台股挑戰近八年來的9,859新高點,營造羊年開春波段行情。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">根據統計,台股自2000年以來,新春開紅盤漲多跌少,尤其是近幾年開紅盤行情,多跟隨國際股市步調,觀察今年國際股市在台股春節休市期間的表現,今年開紅盤很有可為。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">圖/經濟日報提供</span></h4>
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<span style="font-size: large;">台新投顧協理黃文清指出,在希臘債務協商延期四個月後,歐美股市這段期間分別上漲1~2%,其中,因美國聯準會可能延後升息腳步,道瓊及標普500更分別創下歷史新高;國際寬鬆資金環境,加上外資積蓄買盤力道,將是台股明日開紅盤最有利的多頭靠山。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,根據統計,近15年來台股新春開盤後的10個交易日、元宵節時,上漲機率都維持在六成以上。國泰證期顧問處簡伯儀認為,台股新春開紅盤後的資金行情不可小覷,除了國際資金情勢寬鬆,春節後民間豐沛的資金也將在農曆年後開始回流,可望成為有利台股上衝的因素。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">華南投顧董事長儲祥生認為,國際股市在台股今年農曆封關期間,一度受希臘與歐盟債務協商爭議而起落,但最終達成延期四個月協議,加上美國聯準會並不急於升息,英、德、法股市分別上漲1.19~2.2%不等,台股在開紅盤日時,指數直接飛越9,593去年高點的機率極濃,波段有機會挑戰2007年的9,859高點。</span></div>
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<dt class="more1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://udn.com/news/story/7254/719333-%E9%81%8A%E6%88%B2%E8%82%A1%E6%97%BA-%E6%8B%9A%E7%B8%BE%E5%A2%9E%E4%BA%8C%E6%88%90" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://udn.com/static/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 307px;"><span style="font-size: large;">遊戲股旺 拚績增二成</span><span style="color: #999999; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;"><span style="font-size: large;">2015-02-23</span></span></a></dt>
<dt class="more1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://udn.com/news/story/7253/719415-%E8%98%8B%E6%A6%82%E8%82%A1%EF%BC%8F%E9%B4%BB%E6%B5%B7%E6%AD%A3%E5%B4%B4-%E5%BE%8C%E5%B8%82%E7%9C%8B%E4%BF%8F" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://udn.com/static/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 307px;"><span style="font-size: large;">蘋概股/鴻海正崴 後市看俏</span><span style="color: #999999; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;"><span style="font-size: large;">2015-02-23</span></span></a></dt>
<dt class="more1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://udn.com/news/story/7251/719341-%E9%96%8B%E6%98%A5%E4%B8%89%E9%87%91%E7%BE%8A-%E6%B3%95%E4%BA%BA%E6%8A%BC%E5%AF%B6" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://udn.com/static/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 307px;"><span style="font-size: large;">開春三金羊 法人押寶</span><span style="color: #999999; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;"><span style="font-size: large;">2015-02-23</span></span></a></dt>
<dt class="more1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 100px 0px 0px; position: relative;"><a href="http://udn.com/news/story/7251/719455-%E8%98%8B%E6%9E%9C%E9%8F%88-3%E6%9C%88%E8%B5%B7%E6%A5%AD%E7%B8%BE%E5%A2%9E%E6%BA%AB" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url(http://udn.com/static/img/sprite.png); background-origin: initial; background-position: -192px -1060px; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: initial; color: #444444; display: block; line-height: 2; outline: none; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px; text-decoration: none; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; width: 307px;"><span style="font-size: large;">蘋果鏈 3月起業績增溫</span><span style="color: #999999; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; position: absolute; right: 10px;"><span style="font-size: large;">2015-02-23</span></span></a></dt>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-88590850349670272412015-02-23T10:55:00.003+08:002015-02-23T10:55:33.116+08:00從歐洲問題 看全球投資動向<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="mbody1 style1" style="font-family: 新細明體; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25pt;"><span class="style12" style="font-family: 新細明體, mingliu, taipei; line-height: 25pt;">從歐洲問題 看全球投資動向</span></span><br style="line-height: 25.6000003814697px;" /><span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">2015/02/23 09:54</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 25.6000003814697px;"> </span><span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">中央社 </span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 25.6000003814697px;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">(中央社記者韓婷婷台北2015年2月23日電)新光投信投資暨行銷專案總監呂忠達表示,歷史經驗告訴我們,國家債務不違約並償債的前提,就是要靠經濟成長,但目前歐洲經濟僅是溫和復甦,未來也沒有太大成長的可能性。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">呂忠達表示,歐洲歷經多年紛擾,歐債危機雖已漸趨緩和,但並不代表歐債危機已徹底解決,因為歐洲的人口結構、政治統合、經濟成長、德國態度、各國的歷史與國家競爭力差異等這些結構性因素,都不是單靠歐洲央行的貨幣政策,在短期內能夠解決的。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">呂忠達表示,國家債務不違約並償債的前提,就是要靠經濟成長,但目前歐洲經濟僅是溫和復甦,未來大成長的可能性不高,主因是老化的人口結構所致,高齡少子化、加上勞動生產效率提升緩慢,所面臨的是「人口紅利」的萎縮。在這種情況下,要在「去槓桿」的過程中,去實現經濟的穩定成長,本來就會是一項困難的任務。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">他指出,歐洲除了上述結構性的難題之外,眼前還面臨幾項動盪情勢,希臘償債高峰3月超過40億歐元,希臘已尋求展延,最終希臘是否退出歐元區,已是全球投資關注的重點,歐、美股市近日也因此事而呈現震盪。日前德國10年期公債殖利率,首度低於日債殖利率,顯示投資人因焦慮擔心的情緒,轉而到德國避險。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">為了烏克蘭地緣問題,俄羅斯與德國已相互制裁一段時間;烏克蘭東部戰事不斷,新達成的停火協議能否成功降溫,未來仍是歐洲及國際政治經濟的焦點。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,法國近期遭受2起恐怖攻擊,伊斯蘭激進組織已揚言這僅是第一波,未來還將對歐洲展開一波又一波的恐怖攻擊。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">英國方面,首相卡麥隆(David Cameron)曾表示,他若在5月7日的全國大選中獲勝,將舉行公投,以決定英國是否退出歐盟。由於經濟不確定性升高,將導致投資減少。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">呂忠達分析,歐洲目前集結了「恐懼的總和」,情勢很不穩定,加以全球各央行競相實施寬鬆貨幣政策,進入新一輪的貨幣戰爭,而歐洲央行又在元月下旬實施QE,全球龐大的資金選擇可關注資產類別佈局。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">其中,美國以生技醫療及資訊電子兩大較有能見度的產業為主;印度因英國曾經殖民印度250年,它是歐洲人最了解的亞洲市場。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,中國大陸及香港兩地股市在亞洲區域中本益比最低,且人行正用貨幣政策來達到「保七」及刺激消費的目的;台股則擁有一些全世界最頂尖的科技公司,電子股值得留意。至於東協市場以菲律賓、印尼、泰國等地為主,具有人口紅利、經濟成長率高,以及區域經貿整合等題材。</span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-43379936535957806312015-02-23T10:49:00.000+08:002015-02-23T10:49:13.790+08:00國際熱錢動向難料 台股羊羊得意有3大觀察要點<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="mbody1 style1" style="font-family: 新細明體; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25pt;"><span class="style12" style="font-family: 新細明體, mingliu, taipei; line-height: 25pt;">國際熱錢動向難料 台股羊羊得意有3大觀察要點</span></span><br style="line-height: 25.6000003814697px;" /><span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">2015/02/23 10:06</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 25.6000003814697px;"> </span><span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">鉅亨網 記者王莞甯 台北</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 25.6000003814697px;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">鉅亨網記者王莞甯 台北</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">羊年才剛報到,市場就預期今年國際熱錢在美國將升息下可能引發大幅度的流動,台股受影響的程度也受到投資人關注,投顧指出,今年除了注意資金流向,還有3項觀察要點包括總統大選、兩岸服貿和貨貿協定進展,以及美國升息時點與台灣央行政策等。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">投顧指出,今年下半年將進入2016年總統大選的準備期,政府可望釋出更多選前牛肉來拉抬聲勢,預期下半年將有更多國內投資人與資金進入台股。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">另一方面,年後將持續進行兩岸服貿、貨貿協議後續會談,市場尤其關注協定內容對各產業的利弊影響,特別是開放利益較高的面板、工具機、石化、汽車及零組件。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">由於世界各國經濟復甦步調不一,貨幣政策基調出現差異,考量今年美國、英國將可能開始啟動升息,引導基準利率向上,但台灣通膨壓力和緩,暫無升息的急迫性,預計台灣央行將視美國升息後的資金情勢,再衡量是否調整利率來因應國際資本市場的變化。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">就類股觀察,法人認為,科技股仍是最受矚目的一群,以兩大趨勢為主軸,包括物聯網、以及電子商務和巨量資料。其中物聯網以創造智慧家庭、穿戴式裝置及健康照護三大領域為主軸,而巨量資料分析將帶動伺服器需求持續成長,法人看好國內廠商在此硬體領域具有競爭優勢,未來營運將明顯受益。</span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-74550196263431284732015-02-23T10:33:00.000+08:002015-02-23T10:33:10.131+08:00台灣房價會因為「人口紅利」崩盤嗎?<section id="main" style="border: 0px; color: #555555; font-family: HelveticaNeue, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 21px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="container clearfix" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px auto; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; width: 960px; zoom: 1;">
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<article class="post-2337 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-62 category-oma category-news clearfix with-entry-wrap" id="post-2337" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgb(204, 204, 204) 0px 0px 1px 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-image: -webkit-linear-gradient(left, rgb(247, 247, 247) 0%, rgb(255, 255, 255) 4%, rgb(255, 255, 255) 100%); background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgb(204, 204, 204) 0px 0px 3px 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1;"><div class="entry-wrap" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 30px 30px 10px; vertical-align: baseline;">
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<time class="entry-date" datetime="2013-12-17T12:42:05+00:00" pubdate="pubdate" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 204); border: 0px; color: white; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 25px; left: -60px; line-height: 26px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; text-align: center; text-transform: uppercase; top: 71px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 60px;" title="2013 年 12 月 17 日">十二月 17</time></header><div class="entry-content" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
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-從「需求」、「供給」和「資金」看台灣房價</h4>
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文/ House123 邱愛莉</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">關於「人口紅利」對於房價的影響,網路上有許多文章,分析的很精闢,大多是唱衰台灣房地產。其實,這些分析都非常有道理,大部分引用的國內外人口與房價數據也都極具參考價值。這一篇文章並非錦上添花,而是想結合「人口紅利」所影響的「需求層面」,和「住宅存量」所影響的「供給層面」,還有與房價密不可分的「資金動向」一起來觀察房價的變化。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">在進行討論之前,我們先來看看,房價到底是怎麼決定的。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">房價的決定因素</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;">有學過「經濟學」的人都知道,所有商品的價格,都是由<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「供給」</strong>和<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「需求」</strong>來決定(對沒學過的人來說,這也不是什麼大道理)。雖然有所謂的「訂價」或「開價」,但如果沒有人買單,而供應的一方又想要賣掉這個商品,他就一定只能調降價格直到賣掉為止。<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span id="more-2337" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">舉個生活中的例子,現在小杯的「統一布丁」一個訂價 12 元,如果大家覺得太貴,沒有人要買,統一只好降價,調整到 10 元。發現還是沒有人要買,加上布丁有食用期限,他就調降到 9 元,或是透過促銷打折,以 9 元出售,結果有人買單了,它就以 9 元成交了。供應方(統一)願意用 9 元賣,需求方(消費者)願意用 9 元買,雙方的意願共同決定了商品(統一布丁)的價格。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">由於布丁是標準品,可以重複生產,所以如果統一發現做促銷做到 9 元,生意會很好,他就可以大量生產,並以 9 元的價格販售。但如果他發現 9 元其實低於他的生產和運送成本,他就可能停產,因為多賣多賠錢。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">房地產的價格,其實也和其他商品一樣,都是由「供給方」和「需求方」來決定。</strong>「供給方」是屋主或建商,「需求方」就是可能為了投資或自住需求想要購屋的買方。不同於其他商品的是,每間房子都是獨一無二的,就算是同一個建案,因為樓層、格局、面向的不同,每坪單價都有差異。不過,就算是獨一無二,買方還是可以有其他<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">替代的選擇</strong>。自住需求的人可以改買其他鄰近的房子,或是換個區域找屋,當然也可以不買了,先租房子,或跟家人同住。投資的人可以改買別的建案,或是改投資黃金、股票,甚至是國外的房地產。只要沒有人買(需求降低),賣方又一定要賣(供給不變),價格就一定會修正。(當然賣方也可以收回來不要賣,屋主或建商就繼續持有這個物件,放著或自用、出租都可以,建商也可以選擇不要再蓋新房子,跟統一也可以選擇不再生產布丁一樣。)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">那身為「需求方」,我要怎麼判斷要用什麼價格買呢?和所有的商品和服務一樣,<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">你願意付的「價格」,通常就是你認為你會收到的「價值」。</strong>台灣不管北部、中部、南部,都越來越便利,越來越可愛。我在 14 年前從中部上來台北讀書,從此就留在台北定居。以前回家坐客運要 3 個小時,坐火車要 2 個半小時,現在有了高鐵,1 個小時就到。許多舒服的藝文空間,經過整治美麗的河岸、公園,成為了周末休閒的好去處。不只高鐵,還有台北人每天依賴的捷運,更大幅縮短了交通往返的時間。如果不去看那些伴隨建設而來,偶爾發生的「無效率」(許多馬路挖了又填,填了又挖)或「弊案」(這就不用舉例了),其實住在台灣真的很幸福。以現在在台北工作的我為例,如果我要買房子,我願意用多少錢買呢?我要買在哪一區?肯定我的心裡是有一個答案的。隨著建設越來越到位,我心裡對於「擁有一間房子」這件事的「價值」可能會提升,但一旦房價的「價格」高於我對「價值」的認知太多時,我就會猶豫了。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">這是「理性」的房價層面。「不理性」的層面,就是來自人為炒作、哄抬、恐嚇下的<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「預期心理」</strong>(我想,我們都聽過「今天不買,明天會更貴」…),以及因為整體金融環境所導致的「資金動向」(這個影響的因素太多,晚點再提)。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">「預期心理」其實並沒有錯。我可能「預期」高鐵通車之後,南港會變貴,如果我因為工作、要離家人近一點…等等因素,真的很想住在南港,我可能會選擇現在買,至於買的價格,則是我認為「高鐵確認會通車,但還沒通車」前的「價值」。同樣的「預期心理」也發生在這幾年房價翻漲的幾個「重劃區」(北中南都有)。我「預期」建設陸續到位後,「重劃區」的「居住價值」會提升,所以我願意用現在的「價格」去買它未來的「價值」。如果這些「建設」都如期發生,那麼「價格」與「價值」平衡,那倒也OK(雖然就算「價格」和「價值」平衡,我也要得先買得起才可以,畢竟台灣的「房價所得比」高居全世界第一)。如果「建設」是用喊的,只是財團或建商為了哄抬價格所鋪陳的「夢」,那就是炒作了。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">跟「需求面」息息相關的「人口紅利」</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;">以上這些跟「人口紅利」有什麼關係呢?(已經了解「人口紅利」定義的人可以跳過直接看下一段)<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「人口紅利」回歸本質,就是「人口結構」,分為「人口紅利」和「人口負債」,進而影響人口數量。</strong>當一個國家的「撫養比」小於 50% 時,也就是「依賴人口」(14 歲以下的幼年人口,和 65 歲以上的老年人口)佔「適齡工作年齡人口」(15 到 64 歲)的比例小於 50% 時(表示兩個以上的青壯年才要負責一個沒有工作能力的老人、幼兒),勞動力資源豐富,稱為「人口紅利」時期。當「總撫養比」超過 60% 時,則進入「人口負債」時期。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">台灣於 2012 年的總人口數約為 2,332 萬。受低出生率(晚婚、不婚及遲育、少育趨勢)和老人化影響(預期壽命上升),依照行政院經濟建設委員會的統計,台灣的「撫養比」從 1983 年的 55.0%,持續降到 2012 年的 34.7%(最低點),之後反彈提升,如果總生育率以較中庸的中間數值來推計(假設總生育率從 2012 年 1.24 人上升到 2035 年的 1.3 人後維持固定),預計到 2027 年「撫養比」將達 50.9%,結束「人口紅利」時期,並於 2033 年達 60.8%,進入「人口負債」時期。依推估,台灣到 2060 年「撫養比」將達 97.1%,比 1960 年的 92.03%還要高。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">(「中華民國2012年至2060年人口推計」,行政院經濟建設委員會)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">「人口紅利」所關注的「撫養比」不僅影響台灣的人口結構,造成生產力下降、人均經濟負擔變重,同時也影響了人口數。受過去生育率長期下降的影響,使得台灣的育齡婦女人數也持續減少。因此,即使未來總生育率如歐美等其他國家一樣反轉回升,除非成長幅度很大,否則,出生人數仍將持續下降。隨著死亡率下降,預期壽命上升,未來老年人口數及死亡人數將快速增加,2012 年人口數約為 2,332 萬,預計於 2022 年,「年出生數」約等於「年死亡數」,人口數約為 2,364 萬。在這之後,如不考慮國際遷徙的人口變動,台灣的人口將逐年遞減,2033 年約為 2,342 萬(此時人口數變化還不大,但進入「人口負債」時期,人口結構改變,「扶養比」達 60.8%),<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">預計到 2055 年跌破 2,000 萬大關,約為 1,999 萬人,到 2060 年更降為 1,892 萬人,約回到 1983-1984 年之間的人口數。</strong>雖然人口數相近,但不同的是<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">人口結構改變,「扶養比」從 1983-1984 年平均的 54.5% 變成 97.1%</strong>,每人平均負擔變重。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">(「中華民國2012年至2060年人口推計」,行政院經濟建設委員會)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">(「中華民國2012年至2060年人口推計」,行政院經濟建設委員會)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">從「人口數」和「扶養比」到底能不能預測房價的漲跌呢?</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;">從目前全球房地產網站(global property guide)觀察台灣房價走勢時,所引用的「信義房價指數」來看,如果以 2001 年第一季為基期,從 1998 年到 2012 年每年第四季房價指數,與該年度年底人口數、撫養比來看,雖然房價大抵上隨著人口成長與撫養比下降而上升,但是,房價仍有漲跌的波段。如果把時間序列再拉長,會發現就算台灣人口持續成長,房價並非無止境的上升。因為影響房價的因素很多,舉凡政治、利率、景氣、政策、稅率等等,並非純粹的人口數量和人口結構可以決定。</span></div>
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<dt style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://blog.house123.com.tw/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%B5%B1%E8%A8%88%E8%88%87%E4%BF%A1%E7%BE%A9%E6%88%BF%E5%83%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B81.jpg" style="border: 0px; color: #0096e0; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="(整理自「中華民國2012年至2060年人口推計」,與信義房價指數) (2013年之資料為2013年底之人口推計與2013年Q3之信義房價指數)" height="382" src="http://blog.house123.com.tw/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3%E7%B5%B1%E8%A8%88%E8%88%87%E4%BF%A1%E7%BE%A9%E6%88%BF%E5%83%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B81.jpg" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="660" /></span></a></dt>
<dd style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: large;">(整理自「中華民國 2012 年至 2060 年人口推計」,與信義房價指數)<br />(2013 年之資料為2013年底之人口推計與 2013 年 Q3 之信義房價指數)</span></dd></dl>
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<span style="font-size: large;">關於由景氣循環看台灣房市的觀察,我覺得李同榮先生在【良心房仲的告白】其中一個章節分析的很中肯,有興趣的朋友可以到<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.rakuya.com.tw/hnews/hnews_list/4336/2/0/5/0" style="border: 0px; color: #0096e0; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">這裡</span></a></strong>閱讀。我將在後文整理他的分析。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">不過,不可諱言的是,台灣的人口數從來沒遇過下降的情況。從 1960 年以來,從早期的每年年增率 3.3%,一路降到 2012 年的 0.4%,預計到 2022 年將到達接近於零的 0.1%,不管幅度再小,至少人口都是成長的,扶養比也一路下降。過了 2023 年後,台灣將持續以每年下降 0.1%-1.1% 的速度下降,雖然看起來年降率的數值不大,「複利」的威力卻很可怕。<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">當 2060 年台灣人口數變成 1,892 萬,且「扶養率」變成 97.1%(其中「扶老率」就貢獻了 77.7%),到底社會會變成什麼樣?</strong>我們沒有遇過,也只能模擬推算(大多數的文章大多引用日本人口老化的經驗來推估台灣)雖然有人問,台灣會不會開放新移民?新移民會不會在台灣置產?(有些人認為大陸人會搬來台灣,把台灣的房地產買完…)這個和政策與國際經濟有關(移民的獎勵是什麼?什麼樣的誘因讓他們想在台灣置產?),不在此篇討論之列。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">跟「供給面」息息相關的「住宅存量」</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;">和「需求面」共同決定房價的,還有「供給面」。而與「供給面」息息相關的,莫過於<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「住宅存量」</strong>了。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">依照 2012 年內政部營建署統計,<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">全台灣屋齡 30 年以上有 319 萬間,佔了全台灣 812 萬戶房子中將近 40%。</strong>而其中,台北市平均屋齡已達 29.2 年,有 44 萬多間屋齡 30 年以上,佔了台北市所有房子超過 50%,其中有 13 萬間屋齡更超過 40 年。以一般銀行認定 RC 結構的建築物壽命 50 年為標準,這些房子最慢到 20 年後(2032年),就達到 50 年的屋齡。40% 的比例可謂不低,以台灣所在的高地震帶來看,要住的安心必須要好好檢查並加強結構安全。(我們公司承租的辦公室屋齡 43 年,雖在台北市中山區的精華地段,距離南京復興捷運站走路才 5 分鐘,租金也不貴,但我們常苦笑說,再過 10 年我們就不敢再繼續租這裡了。)</span></div>
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<a href="http://blog.house123.com.tw/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/10084727196_508f3c67f4_b2.jpg" style="border: 0px; color: #0096e0; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="(全台灣屋齡30年以上有319萬間,佔了全台灣812萬戶房子中將近40%。) (照片由 準建築人手札網站 Forgemind ArchiMedia>創用 CC 授權) " class="size-full wp-image-2353" height="495" src="http://blog.house123.com.tw/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/10084727196_508f3c67f4_b2.jpg" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 5px 5px 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="660" /></span></a><div class="wp-caption-text" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-size: large;">(全台灣屋齡 30 年以上有 319 萬間,佔了全台灣 812 萬戶房子中將近 40%。)<br />(照片由 準建築人手札網站 <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/eager/10084727196/in/photostream/" style="border: 0px; color: #0096e0; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Forgemind ArchiMedia</a> 創用 CC 授權)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">目前全台 30 年屋齡的老建築,幾乎都用 RC(鋼筋混凝土)或甚至是「加強磚造」建造(也是鋼筋混凝土,但樑柱尺寸比較小,結構磚牆也是結構的一部分,用來協助抵抗地震力)。此外,有一段時期蓋的公寓有較高比例有氯離子含量偏高的情形(俗稱的「海砂屋」),增加對建築物鋼筋的腐蝕,造成混凝土強度降低,縮短房屋耐用年限。除了結構的安全外,消防的規劃和設計也較不足,使得居住的安全性降低。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如果我們將「需求」與「供給」一起看,會發現一個有趣的現象:<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">從 2012 年到 2032 年,總人口數預計下降 0.6%,以 15 到 64 歲的「適齡工作年齡人口」來看,下降近 15%</strong>(我知道 20 歲以下的孩子不會自立買房,但超過 65 歲的長輩還是有可能買房,所以在這裡我們就以目前政府推計的人口年齡來作為可能需要買房自住的需求人口),且每個人要負擔的撫養比例變高,影響對房價的支付能力。<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">然而,比起需求的下降,供給的下降也不遑多讓(將近 40% 的房子將高達 50 年屋齡)</strong>。2012 年底台灣的住宅總量約為 812 萬戶,其中約有86萬戶為低度使用住宅(比例為 10.63%,俗稱「空屋率」),表示非空屋的有約 726 萬戶。假設 2032 年住宅需求因人口結構改變降低 15%,變成 617 萬戶,但同時間屋齡在 50 年以上的老屋也達 319 萬間。過去十年,台灣每年新核發的建築使用執照約為 10 萬戶,以此推估,未來20年可能新增加 200 萬戶住宅供給。<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">推估未來 20 年的供給與需求(供給:812 萬戶- 319 萬戶+ 200 萬戶= 693 萬戶 vs 需求:726 萬戶 x 85% = 617 萬戶),兩者落差為 10.97%,與目前的空屋率相去不遠。雖然 50 年以上的屋齡並非不堪使用,但是由於老化的房子大多集中在發展成熟的市區,新蓋的房子大多較偏郊區,所有數字相權衡之下,對於住宅的需求相對仍高。</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如何解決供給問題?</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;">要解決供給的問題,乍看之下,就增加新房子的供給就好了。其實,政府對於增加新房子的供給做的事情不少,房價也沒有因此下跌,反而還升高。例如:台北市和新北市曾經推行過的<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「都更」</strong>。都更的立意良好,可是除了要成功整合所有住戶的意願並不容易外,都更成功所推出的新建案,雖然有容積獎勵,可以多蓋一點樓地板面積,但建商身為業者,分給了住戶之後,也不可能不賺錢。加上原始住戶的「預期心理」,因此使得在「都更」話題很夯的時候,不僅新成屋沒有跌價,反而造成屋齡超過 30 年的中古無電梯公寓價格狂漲。再舉例:<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">國有土地標售</strong>,讓建商拿來蓋房子。的確增加了新房子的供給,但國有土地價格屢創新高,在上面蓋的房子價格也不斐,加上國有土地面積大,相對完整,建商大多規畫豪宅,價格也創下區域新高。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如果增加供給,會有「利益」空間,那麼除非一次增加的供給量非常大,不然,要透過市場的機制讓價格降下來有一定的難度。政府蓋<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">合宜住宅</strong>其實是提高「平價房屋供給」的好方法,但要把轉賣套利的配套措施都設計好。例如:日後轉售只能賣回給政府,讓政府再轉售給其他符合申請資格的人,讓合宜住宅真正落實「居者有其屋」的美意。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">除了增加平價房屋供給之外,讓隨著時間老舊的房子可以繼續使用,也是穩定住宅供給,並降低住戶換屋需求的做法。50 年以上的房子並非真的不安全。我請教了一位結構技師的朋友,他表示,屋齡高的房子是否安全,是以混凝土的有效期來判斷。混凝土可使用年限約為 50-60 年,但是混凝土如果仍然保持良好,其實年限可以更長。判斷基準是中性化的程度,可以取樣去做試驗。有些房子外牆磁磚或防水做很好,裂縫也少,不易滲水的話,屋齡到 80 年或 100 年都有可能。比較危險的是,有許多房子當初蓋的沒有那麼嚴謹,加上外牆磁磚或防水沒做的很好(許多公寓的外牆滲水嚴重),風吹雨淋之下,混凝土的使用年限就無法延長(他表示,台灣有很多橋樑,都已經 70、80 年了,如果沒有補強其實很危險)。所以現在很多老屋做<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">外牆拉皮</strong>,如果做的好,對結構其實幫助很大。拉皮前會打除舊的磁磚跟混凝土保護層,填補縫隙,再貼上新瓷磚,重新保護混凝土。現在磁磚都很棒,對防範風吹雨淋效果很好,這樣就能延長房子的使用年限。最近新聞出現的<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「老舊公寓申請電梯補助」</strong>我也覺得很好,增加了電梯的設備,讓越來越多的銀髮族就算不換屋,也能住的方便。(當然,裝了電梯或拉皮後的公寓,如有人要轉售,通常價格也會墊高,但某方面它的「價值」也提升了。至於這個「價值」值多少錢,就讓市場的供需雙方來決定了。)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">我想所有的法規困難的地方不在於立法,而是在於執行時的配套機制。不管是都更、合宜住宅、結構安全檢查等都是。台北市正在推動的<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「老屋健檢」</strong>就是很好的政策,只要符合屋齡 30 年以上、地上 3 層樓的集合式住宅,且有半數屋主同意施行,就可申請「老屋健檢」,每棟補助 1 萬 5 千元到 3 萬元。這些政策執行雖然需要花資源,但是還是要去做。不能等到下一個天災人禍時,才來檢討政府為什麼遲遲沒有作為?為什麼沒有好好保護人民的居住安全?而透過好的機制,台灣未來 20 年即將成為 50 年屋齡的老舊建物才有新的生命,穩定「供給」,讓供給與需求不會倒向一邊。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">與房價密不可分的「資金動向」</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;">由於房地產,不僅具有自住、自用的功能,同時也因為<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「保值」</strong>和<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「高槓桿」</strong>的特色,在游資多的時候,便成為資金聚集的標的項目。<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">除了供給和需求的基本面外,「資金動向」對房價的影響可能不會亞於前面兩者。</strong>我借用李同榮先生【良心房仲的告白】其中一個章節:由「景氣循環看台灣房市的觀察」的圖表來分析(藍色反白註解為本人整理補充,點擊可看大圖):</span></div>
<div class="wp-caption alignnone" id="attachment_2345" style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; color: #999999; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; max-width: 99%; padding: 0px 4px 4px 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline; width: 670px;">
<a href="https://house123.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/construction/1576/content/1387108240.92.jpg" style="border: 0px; color: #0096e0; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="(整理自「景氣循環看台灣房市的觀察」,李同榮先生。藍色反白註解為本人整理補充。)" class="size-full wp-image-2345" height="378" src="http://blog.house123.com.tw/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/%E6%99%AF%E6%B0%A3%E5%BE%AA%E7%92%B01.jpg" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 5px 5px 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="660" /></span></a><div class="wp-caption-text" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-size: large;">(整理自「景氣循環看台灣房市的觀察」,李同榮先生。藍色反白註解為本人整理補充。)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如果我們將 2001 年-2013 年間五大行庫一年期存款平均利率和信義房價指數一起看,會發現這一波房價的漲勢和利率的驟降、稅制(如:遺產稅從 50% 調降到 10% 使得資金回流,2011 年 Q2 雖實施奢侈稅但對房價並無抑制效果)、政策(如:ECFA、近來的服貿等)息息相關,加上美國、歐洲、亞洲多個國家均以貨幣寬鬆政策紓解國家資金需求壓力,導致游資過多,許多人為了抗通膨或投機賺取價差,紛紛將資金投入房地產,導致房價不斷升高。(點擊可看大圖)</span></div>
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<a href="https://house123.s3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/construction/1576/content/1387108863.24.jpg" style="border: 0px; color: #0096e0; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="(整理自中央銀行資料,點擊可看大圖。) 說明: 1.五大銀行:2008年10月以前,五大銀行是指台銀、合庫銀、一銀、華銀和彰銀。該年11月起,彰銀遭到取代,改為台銀、合庫銀、一銀、華銀和土銀。 2.存款利率為一般定期存款固定利率。" class="size-full wp-image-2354" height="366" src="http://blog.house123.com.tw/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/%E6%88%BF%E5%83%B9%E8%88%87%E5%88%A9%E6%81%AF%E7%B7%A8%E8%BC%AF%E5%BE%8C_v21.jpg" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 5px 5px 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="660" /></span></a><div class="wp-caption-text" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 5px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-size: large;">(整理自中央銀行資料,點擊可看大圖。)<br />說明:<br />1.五大銀行:2008年10月以前,五大銀行是指台銀、合庫銀、一銀、華銀和彰銀。該年11月起,彰銀遭到取代,改為台銀、合庫銀、一銀、華銀和土銀。<br />2.存款利率為一般定期存款固定利率。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如果我們觀察過去 12 年的利率走勢,我們會發現利率調升的幅度較慢(一般常見的升息幅度-1 碼為 0.25%,過去升息多以半碼的幅度調升,如果要調升 1%,必須調升 8 次),但是只要遇到金融危機,要調降卻很快(例如:2001 年網際網路泡沫、2008 年金融海嘯)。而因應景氣變化而調整的稅制與政策,更進一步影響了資金的流向。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">為了因應台灣的高房價,央行總裁彭淮南先生不斷暗示利率不可能永遠那麼低。的確,目前的低利率可說是前所未見,雖然在過去幾年小幅調升了幾次,但仍維持在低檔。由於利率跟國際貨幣政策息息相關,<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">隨著美國 QE3、QE4 在未來的退場,利率逐步調高是必然的趨勢,但在利率大於通貨膨脹之前,要使房價大幅下降看起來有相當的難度。</strong>因為,<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">只要這樣的條件存在一天,任何「理智」的人都會想跟銀行借錢去買房子,</strong>因為以通膨的幅度預測房地產的漲幅,只要負擔銀行的低利率,絕對划算。反而,如果將錢存在銀行,每年賺約 1% 的定存利率,面對每年 3% 的通貨膨脹,現金反而縮小 2%。然而,當房地產面對的不是因居住、使用所需要的<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「實質需求」</strong>,而是龐大的資金為了保值或套利所堆砌起來的<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「假性需求」</strong>,當稅制與利率急轉直上時,資金要撤很快,房價就失去了穩定的支撐了。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">結論</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;">影響房價的因素之多,其實所有預測房價趨勢的人都需要很大的勇氣,因為所有預測都只能在事後驗證是否發生。這一篇文章不是為了預測房價,而是僅僅將我的觀察和觀點分享出來。台灣的高房價常常讓我們瞠口結舌。然而,<strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">單純從「人口紅利」想要預測房價,是有風險的。這一篇文章是從「需求」、「供給」,和重要性完全不亞於前兩者的「資金動向」來看台灣房價。</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">台灣的房價會不會跌?沒有什麼東西不會跌,黃金都會跌了,為什麼房子不會跌。美國、日本的房地產都會跌了,為什麼台灣的房子不會跌。只是,造成房價漲跌的因素太多,發生在美國、日本的,不一定在台灣,或者說,就算台灣的房價修正了,原因也肯定和美國、日本不盡相同。修正到什麼地步才算合理?回歸到「價值」的認知,你願意用多少錢買你想住的房子呢?如果你要置產收租,多少的租金投報率才能讓你滿意呢?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><strong style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">我們也希望台灣的房價能夠回到合理的價位,然而,與其說房價決定於「人口」這個「實質需求」,不如說是決定於消化龐大「資金」這個「假性需求」。在政府透過政策、稅制、利率防堵資金集中在房市前,房價要大跌很難。</strong>當然,除了等待政府的作為,我們也可以聯合都先不要買,等到想賣的人修正到我們心裡關於「價值」那一把尺的價位,再來買(但那要等市場的游資都消化之後)。在那之前,我們還是可以看看書、看看房子,累積看房子、議價的經驗與功夫,等到房價修正的那一天來臨。</span></div>
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日本購屋首選 當代東京房產顧問</h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;">投資日本房地產 說明會3/21台北場!教你如何選擇投資標的!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">你可以使用這些 <abbr style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="HyperText Markup Language">HTML</abbr> 標籤與屬性: <code style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong></code></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">分類</span></h3>
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一直以來,我們成立的使命就是想集合買方的力量,透過我們,讓想買房子的人可以有更多資源,有更多人可以協助,讓買賣房子成為一個美好的人生經驗,不管你現在處於哪一個階段,都歡迎好好運用我們,一起完成購屋的夢想。<br /><a href="https://www.house123.com.tw/about" style="border: 0px; color: #0096e0; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">瞭解更多…</a></div>
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聯絡我們</h3>
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週一至週五 10:00-18:30<br />(例假日及中午 12:30-13:30 暫不提供電話服務)</div>
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媒體報導</h3>
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</footer>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-38354867073929208832015-02-23T10:29:00.000+08:002015-02-23T10:29:14.665+08:00萬萬稅!今年買、賣房7項稅制別忽略<br />
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萬萬稅!今年買、賣房7項稅制別忽略</h1>
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相關關鍵字</h2>
<a class="ga_click_trace" ga_cat="news_article_keyword" ga_event="article_keyword_up_click" ga_label="房屋稅" href="http://news.housefun.com.tw/news/%E6%88%BF%E5%B1%8B%E7%A8%85" style="-webkit-transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; background-color: #eaeaea; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 3px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px !important; padding: 4px 7px; text-decoration: none; transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; vertical-align: baseline;">房屋稅</a> <a class="ga_click_trace" ga_cat="news_article_keyword" ga_event="article_keyword_up_click" ga_label="囤房稅" href="http://news.housefun.com.tw/news/%E5%9B%A4%E6%88%BF%E7%A8%85" style="-webkit-transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; background-color: #eaeaea; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 3px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px !important; padding: 4px 7px; text-decoration: none; transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; vertical-align: baseline;">囤房稅</a> <a class="ga_click_trace" ga_cat="news_article_keyword" ga_event="article_keyword_up_click" ga_label="契稅" href="http://news.housefun.com.tw/news/%E5%A5%91%E7%A8%85" style="-webkit-transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; background-color: #eaeaea; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 3px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px !important; padding: 4px 7px; text-decoration: none; transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; vertical-align: baseline;">契稅</a> <a class="ga_click_trace" ga_cat="news_article_keyword" ga_event="article_keyword_up_click" ga_label="奢侈稅" href="http://news.housefun.com.tw/news/%E5%A5%A2%E4%BE%88%E7%A8%85" style="-webkit-transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; 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background-color: #eaeaea; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 3px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px !important; padding: 4px 7px; text-decoration: none; transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; vertical-align: baseline;">房地合一</a> <a class="ga_click_trace" ga_cat="news_article_keyword" ga_event="article_keyword_up_click" ga_label="稅率" href="http://news.housefun.com.tw/news/%E7%A8%85%E7%8E%87" style="-webkit-transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; background-color: #eaeaea; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 3px 0px 0px; outline: none 0px !important; padding: 4px 7px; text-decoration: none; transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; vertical-align: baseline;">稅率</a> <a class="ga_click_trace" ga_cat="news_article_keyword" ga_event="article_keyword_up_click" ga_label="政策" href="http://news.housefun.com.tw/news/%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96" style="-webkit-transition: color 0.5s ease, background-color 0.5s ease; 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<span style="font-size: large;">好房網News記者蔡佩蓉/台北報導</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">政府缺錢的年代,「金援」就從查稅、增稅著手,其中房地產買賣衍生出的交易稅及持有稅,近2年也有變化,尤其包含財產交易所得、房屋稅、豪宅稅都有巨幅變動,因此今年買賣房屋,有7項稅制狀況你一定要留意。</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: large;">增稅時代,今年要多留意買賣房衍生出的稅金。(好房網News記者陳韋帆攝影)</span></strong><img alt="新北市中和區有許多河岸宅同時可看到北市101大樓。(好房網News記者 陳韋帆/攝影)" border="0" src="http://p1-news.hfcdn.com/p1-news/OTE5ODAzbmV3cw,,/f5b54a360c8dd6a8.jpg/qs/w=600&h=600&r=16888" style="border: 0px; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 5px 0px; max-width: 640px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">【土增稅】</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2014年全台土增稅收由「正轉負」,不過,土增稅的調漲卻沒有停歇,2015年全台都會區土地公告現值皆調漲,包括台北市平均調幅10.63%、新北市15.17%、台中市11.06%、台南市12.49%,換句話說,今年屋主賣房的土增稅又增多了。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">【財產交易所得】</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">財產交易所得雙北地區總價超過8000萬元、其他地區5000萬元以上的豪宅,需採「核實認定」方式申報。而屋齡愈輕的房屋交易,若沒採實質申報,也可能被國稅局查稅。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">【房屋稅/囤屋稅】</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">政府針對多屋族加稅,在去年6月修正《房屋稅條例》第5條,並從7月起實施新稅率,「非用住宅」稅率提高為1.5%至3.6%,自住住宅則仍維持1.2%。這樣採全國總歸戶模式,持有第4戶以上住宅就必須按照非自用稅率1.5%至3.6%課徵,也稱作「囤房稅」,今年繳稅金額也將變高。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">【豪宅稅】</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">台北市《房屋稅修正條文》將新制的房屋構造標準單價調高,包括「調高新屋構造標準單價」、「修正高級住宅認定標準(豪宅稅)」、「調整99條路段率」、「擬訂非自用房屋差別稅率」等方式,大幅提高持有稅。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">尤其總價逾8千萬元的豪宅,將邁入房屋稅百萬元俱樂部,包括2014年7月1日後領取使用執照,並完工交屋的房屋標準單價全面調高1.6倍甚至更高,今年豪宅屋主的房屋稅將激增數倍,正式邁入「養房難」的時代。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">【契稅】</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">隨著2014年2月11日台北市公告大幅調高「房屋構造標準單價」約2.5倍,加上路段調整率與高級住宅加成率,同戶房屋取得使用執照在2014年7月1日前後,房屋評定現值可以相差約3至10倍,除了房屋稅暴增之外,以相同方式計算的契稅也暴增。不過這對一般百姓居住的老舊公寓並沒有影響,與房屋稅相同,僅衝擊新豪宅。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">【奢侈稅】</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">政府針對奢侈稅,2月釋出11種免徵條件公告,不過針對人頭戶、信託、假贈與等仍嚴格查稅。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">【房地合一稅】</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">房地合一稅彷如「凌遲房市」,政府時時刻刻在變,目前包括房屋持有期間超過2年稅率為17%、持有期間2年內稅率為20%至30%;出售4000萬元以下房產免稅,且自用住宅最高減徵率80%。由於目前最終版本尚未確定,今年民眾也要特別留意稅最新制變化。</span></div>
<div style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 1em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="border: 0px; color: red; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: yellow; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> 買房難,養房更難!這時候唯有學會</span></span><span style="border: 0px; color: red; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: yellow; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">「</span></span><span style="border: 0px; color: red; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: yellow; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">節稅</span></span><span style="border: 0px; color: red; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: yellow; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">」</span></span><span style="border: 0px; color: red; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: yellow; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">才是自救之道!</span></span>→<a href="http://news.housefun.com.tw/lectures/topic/11?utm_source=HF_news&utm_term=150205&utm_campaign=seminar_promotion" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; color: #44aa77; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px !important; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">點我立刻報名</a>。</span></div>
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<img alt="好房網影響力講座/黃志偉/房屋稅節稅對策大公開" src="http://p1-news.hfcdn.com/p1-news/OTQ1OTIxbmV3cw,,/97c54e2b3afd9dc6.jpg/qs/r=16888" style="border: 0px solid; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 220px; line-height: inherit; margin: 5px 0px; max-width: 640px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 600px;" /></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><iframe height="380" src="http://event.housefun.com.tw/rdprice/?w=590&h=380&city=%E5%8F%B0%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82&area=%E8%90%AC%E8%8F%AF%E5%8D%80&gaCode=http://news.housefun.com.tw/news/article/69214690424.htmlltm_content--News_article_map_iframe@utm_source--HF_News@utm_medium--image_text_ad@utm_campaign--map_iframe@utm_content--Buy_news_article_map_iframe_image_text_ad" style="border-width: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="590"></iframe></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-39292829206327796362015-02-23T10:25:00.001+08:002015-02-23T10:25:42.817+08:00【地產專欄】張欣民:加強版房屋稅不只衝擊新豪宅<div class="yom-mod yom-art-hd" id="mediaarticlehead" style="background-color: white; border-color: transparent; border-top-style: none; color: grey; font-family: arial, STHeiti, pmingliu, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 16.0030002593994px; margin: 12px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; zoom: 1;">
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【地產專欄】張欣民:加強版房屋稅不只衝擊新豪宅</h1>
<a data-rapid_p="1" href="https://tw.house.yahoo.com/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #80c269; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img alt="Yahoo奇摩房地產編輯部" class="logo" src="https://s.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/QVCn0LomCt_orcyecNUxqg--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9Zml0O2g9ODA-/http://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/realestate/2013-10-08/e668d4ca-3ce9-45f9-8ac8-f2c006023266_yahoo_zh-Hant-TW_f_p_bestfit_2x.png" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline; height: 27px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 10px; vertical-align: middle;" title="" /></a><cite class="byline vcard" style="display: inline !important; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0900001525879px; font-style: normal; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="provider org">Yahoo奇摩房地產編輯部</span> – <abbr style="border: 0px;" title="2015-02-19T13:38:00Z">2015年2月19日 下午9:38</abbr></cite></div>
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<span class="yom-figure yom-fig-middle" style="border: 1px solid rgb(218, 218, 218); clear: both; display: block; margin: 20px auto; padding: 8px; width: 506px;"><img alt="圖說:加強版房屋稅衝擊不只新豪宅,各種形式的住宅大樓也都受害。張欣民提供" class="editorial" height="337" src="https://s2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/6ncFQVhLoXkLyYiYmuEEsg--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTUwNg--/http://media.zenfs.com/zh-Hant-TW/homerun/tw.editor.house.yahoo.com/818a455fcdedb4614c967322c915c9dc" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline; margin: 0px auto;" title="圖說:加強版房屋稅衝擊不只新豪宅,各種形式的住宅大樓也都受害。張欣民提供" width="506" /><span class="legend" style="color: grey; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12.3223085403442px; line-height: 1.7em; margin: 5px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">圖說:加強版房屋稅衝擊不只新豪宅,各種形式的住宅大樓也都受害。張欣民提供</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">房地合一稅是今年干擾房市最大的不確定因素,預計會在明年實施,但是2014年7月1日以後完工的新成屋,當下就已經面臨到「加強版房屋稅」的衝擊。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">在此新稅制之下受傷的不只是新豪宅,商辦、飯店、都更屋、地上權宅等都一併受害,地方政府無預警的調高房屋稅有沒有違法或是違憲,值得檢討,民眾今年在買新房子時,更要好好估算相關的稅費成本,才不會進退失據!</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-size: large;">新屋房屋稅有感增加30倍!</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">去年雙北市、高雄市及宜蘭同時調整路段率、房屋構造單價成本,也就是市場上所稱的「加強版房屋稅」,造成2014年7月1日以後取得使用執照的建案都面臨房屋稅「有感」增加。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">其中重災區又屬台北市,除每坪造價平均調高2.6倍外,還有豪宅稅與囤房稅的加乘衝擊,一度傳出部分新屋的房屋稅加重將近30倍,造成已購民眾不願交屋的糾紛。</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-size: large;">高額房屋稅新豪宅首當其衝</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">最近市場上談論最多的就屬台北市松江商圈、南京商圈上陸續有新豪宅建案交屋,引發「加強版房屋稅」的熱烈討論。像是「松疆」、「頂高案」、「XX一號院」等都掃到這強烈颱風尾,不僅契稅倍數增加,未來房屋稅更是高得嚇人。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">就以松江路上2014年7月1日後新完工的豪宅建案為例,因為建案之路段是坐落在松江路上最貴路段率270%,而且構造標準單價由之前的每平方公尺7,800元調高到18,650元,一下子就激增了2.4倍。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">若是1戶130坪的自用住宅,其房屋稅也就由39.8萬暴增到95.1萬,交屋時的契稅,更是從199萬增加到475萬,真的令人咋舌。</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-size: large;">不只房屋 土地稅也吃不消</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">這樣的交屋成本以及持有成本,恐怕都是出乎這些豪宅買家意料之外,由於這些精華地段的新豪宅面對如此高的持有成本,陸續已經有些建築業者及壽險公司表明不再推豪宅產品了,免得到時候賣不出去,成為扔不掉、甩不掉的燙手山芋!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">因此有人形容新豪宅是「加強版房屋稅」的最大苦主,但實務上受傷的不僅僅新豪宅而已,像是大直美麗華商圈即將開幕的5星級飯店也遭殃,飯店業者原預估土地相關稅負約5,600萬元,新制房屋稅實施後,土地相關稅負試算後近2億元,讓業者大感吃不消,也嚴重斲斷業者的競爭力。</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-size: large;">高額房屋稅讓都更更困難</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">商辦大樓如果是在2014年7月1日之後完工的,同樣也面對了契稅及房屋稅大幅增加的困境,這些成本該如何吸收或是轉嫁?都會影響業者的租金收益或是承租方的承租意願。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">最後受影響的是政府極力鼓勵的都市更新與設定地上權之土地開發,都更在整合上已經非常困難了,一旦都更後,又要繳交高額的房屋稅,可能更會讓原屋主卻步。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">至於地上權產品本來是擁有價格上的優勢,對經濟力較弱的民眾有較高的吸引力,可是在路段率及建造成本標準調高後,其要繳交的房屋稅,將來可能也會成為住戶不可承受之重!</span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-size: large;">房地合一使相關產品都遭殃</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">「加強版房屋稅」最初的構想也許是讓有錢人多繳些稅,讓豪宅炒作可以漸漸沉寂下去,但是這個震撼彈丟出後,卻是流彈四射,周邊不動產相關產品都跟著遭殃,這可能是政府部門始料未及的!</span></div>
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台中市南屯區<br />27.6 坪3房</div>
<strong style="color: #81511c;">788萬</strong></li>
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台中市南屯區<br />23.14 坪2房</div>
<strong style="color: #81511c;">438萬</strong></li>
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台中市北區<br />40.96 坪3房</div>
<strong style="color: #81511c;">698萬</strong></li>
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<a href="https://clicks.beap.bc.yahoo.com/yc/YnY9MS4wLjAmYnM9KDE4OXZjOG1tbChnaWQkR3pPUm5qRXdOaTczRUMubVZBUGI2QUFlTVRFMExsVHFqd2ZfN3VqWSxzdCQxNDI0NjU4MTgzNjM2MjUzLHNpJDIzNDA2MSxzcCQ5NzkzMjk1MTksY3IkMTMwMzQyMjU2MSx2JDIuMCxhaWQkelVkNkgyb0tud3MtLGN0JDI1LHlieCQxVGZGMjRpTWI0ZzZ2WktRQTEwckxnLGJpJDE1NjM0OTU2MSxtbWUkMzc1NTY1NzEwNDk3NTMyNTYyNSxsbmckemgtdHcsciQ5LGlkJHR4dDVfY2xpY2tzLHJkJDEzNmhlcXB0Zix5b28kMSxhZ3AkMTg0NzgyOTQ5LGFwJEFTNSkp/0/*http://www.chyi.com.tw/buy_detail.php?obj=727192X&utm_source=Yahoo&utm_medium=tab5&utm_campaign=annual" style="color: #eb6100; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">明亮方正商圈機能</a></h3>
<div style="color: #5b5b5b; font-family: Arial; line-height: 18.1350002288818px; padding: 0px;">
台中市北區<br />26.03 坪3房</div>
<strong style="color: #81511c;">588萬</strong></li>
</span></ul>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-51538470305541898632015-02-21T10:54:00.001+08:002015-02-21T10:54:45.124+08:00別再犯了!奢侈稅常犯的19個狀況,認真筆記起來<div id="article-box" style="background-color: white; color: #000066; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'LiHei Pro', PMingLiU, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.0200004577637px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<li class="publish" style="color: blue; float: left; font-size: 11px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: right; width: 115px;"><span class="month">Feb </span><span class="date" style="font-size: 13px;">21 </span><span class="day">Sat </span><span class="year">2015</span></li>
<li class="title" data-hot-link="//www.pixnet.net/blog/articles/category/0" data-site-category-id="36" data-site-category="財經企管" id="article-264903787" style="color: #330099; float: right; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: bold; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 355px;"><h2 style="font-size: 16px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<a href="http://jackyan.pixnet.net/blog/post/264903787" style="color: #ff0033; text-decoration: none;">別再犯了!奢侈稅常犯的19個狀況,認真筆記起來-MyGoNews</a></h2>
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<span class="vbigImgInner" style="font-size: 14pt;"><img alt="國稅局提供「奢侈稅常見疏失或違章型態」,提醒民眾留意,以免遭補稅處罰!" src="http://pic.mygonews.com/fetch.php?v=b22f7e6e97ea0f9904285a307f165849.jpg&t=newsPhoto" original="http://pic.mygonews.com/fetch.php?v=b22f7e6e97ea0f9904285a307f165849.jpg&t=newsPhoto" style="border: 0px; height: 360px; width: 480px;" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">國稅局提供「奢侈稅常見疏失或違章型態」,提醒民眾留意,以免遭補稅處罰!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">2015-01-26【MyGoNews方暮晨/綜合報導】</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">財政部國稅局表示,特種貨物及勞務稅(俗稱奢侈稅)條例自2011年6月1日起實施迄今已滿3年,為避免民眾不諳奢侈稅條例規定,未申報繳納奢侈稅遭補稅處罰,該局特別針對歷年查核奢侈稅案件,蒐集彙整民眾最常發生的疏失或違章19型態,提供民眾參考及自我檢視,以免因疏失而遭到補稅處罰。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">奢侈稅常見疏失或違章型態表列如下:</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: 14pt;"><strong>類型</strong></span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: 14pt;"><strong>疏失或違章型態--</strong><strong>未依規定辦竣戶籍登記</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■未於銷售日(即訂定銷售契約日)前將戶籍遷入,致未符合自住房屋規定。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■未於「持有期間」將戶籍遷入,誤認只要過戶前將戶籍遷入即可符合自住房屋規定。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■誤以為「直系親屬」辦竣戶籍登記即符合奢侈稅自住房屋規定。依規定自住房屋應由所有權人、配偶或「未成年直系親屬」辦竣戶籍。「未成年直系親屬」僅限定為所有權人之未成年子女。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■因換屋購買新房地,嗣後出售原房地(買新賣舊),未於銷售日(舊房地訂約日)之次日起3個月內將戶籍遷移至新房地。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■原來已有一房地,因工作需要又購買新房地,嗣後因調職、資遣等非自願離職因素,須於2年內出售新房地(買新賣新),如果戶籍已遷至新房地者,未於新房地出售訂約日之次日起3個月內將戶籍遷移至原房地。</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: 14pt;"><strong>持有期間算錯</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■誤以為「持有期間」係以不動產買賣所有權登記日計算。正確應自「取得不動產登記日」計算至「買賣雙方銷售契約訂定日」止。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">經核准不課徵土地增值稅</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■出售農業用地及其地上之農舍,未向鄉、鎮、市公所申請核發農業使用證明書,並取得地方稅稽徵機關核發不課徵土地增值稅證明文件。</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: 14pt;"><strong>銷售受贈取得</strong></span><span style="color: red; font-size: 14pt;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■「受贈」取得之不動產於2年內出售,應報繳奢侈稅。</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: 14pt;"><strong>交換</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■「交換」不動產亦視同銷售,要報繳奢侈稅。</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: 14pt;"><strong>停車位</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■單獨銷售2年以內之停車位要課徵奢侈稅。</span><br />
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<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>短期限制建築土地</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■有明確期間禁止作建築使用或申請臨時建築使用之都市土地,仍屬奢侈稅課稅範圍。</span><br />
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<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>未辦保存登記</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■出售未辦保存登記之房屋要報繳奢侈稅;未辦保存登記房屋亦須計入持有戶數計算。</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>銷售價格</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■奢侈稅是對「銷售價格」課稅,所以不論銷售盈虧,都要報繳。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■出賣人向買受人額外收取之介紹、補償費或奢侈稅等,都應該計入銷售額計算奢侈稅。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■低報不動產銷售價格,即以房屋評定現值或土地公告現值申報銷售價格或另訂定銷售價格較實際買賣價格為低的銷售契約,規避繳納奢侈稅。</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: 14pt;"><strong>贈與</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■為符合「持有一戶」的規定,先將房屋假贈與給成年子女後再出售,利用子女名下僅有一戶自住房屋的條件,規避繳納奢侈稅。</span><br />
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<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>預約買賣</strong></span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■實際已出售,取巧虛偽安排將房地先預告登記予買方,等到持有期間滿2年後再將房地所有權移轉登記予買方。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">利用他人名義</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■利用先將房地登記予他人,再以其名義銷售不動產,藉由人頭規避奢侈稅。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">先租後售或以租代售</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14pt;">■利用先租後售或以租代售方式銷售不動產規避奢侈稅。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">國稅局呼籲民眾自我檢視2年內出售不動產,如有不符合稅法相關規定者,應主動向所轄稽徵機關辦理自動補報並補繳應納稅額,凡屬未經檢舉、未經稽徵機關或財政部指定之調查人員進行調查之案件,依稅捐稽徵法第48條之1規定,加計利息自動補報補繳免罰。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><span style="color: #0070c0; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">原文網址:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">http://www.mygonews.com/news/detail/news_id/112065/</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">別再犯了!奢侈稅常犯的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">19</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">個狀況,認真筆記起來 </span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-68190778843738066402015-02-21T10:47:00.001+08:002015-02-21T10:49:24.558+08:00【地產專欄】張欣民:10種買了絕對讓你後悔的房子<div id="article-box" style="background-color: white; color: #000066; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'LiHei Pro', PMingLiU, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.0200004577637px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
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<li class="publish" style="color: blue; float: left; font-size: 11px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: right; width: 115px;"><span class="month">Feb </span><span class="date" style="font-size: 13px;">21 </span><span class="day">Sat </span><span class="year">2015</span></li>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><cite class="byline vcard" id="yui_3_9_1_1_1424472830732_1024" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="provider org" id="yui_3_9_1_1_1424472830732_1034">Yahoo奇摩房地產編輯部</span> – <abbr id="yui_3_9_1_1_1424472830732_1033" style="border: 0px;" title="2014-08-04T13:32:55Z">2014年8月4日</abbr></cite></span></div>
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<span class="yom-figure yom-fig-middle" style="font-size: 14pt; width: 532px;"><img alt="【地產專欄】張欣民:10種買了絕對讓你後悔的房子" class="editorial" data-alt="【地產專欄】張欣民:10種買了絕對讓你後悔的房子" height="379" original="https://s.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/Sb8edQnJiGyvQAw1xaUb0g--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTUzMg--/http://tw-house.zenfs.com/yahookimoeditor_20140804_1407385027_0.jpg" src="https://s.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/Sb8edQnJiGyvQAw1xaUb0g--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTUzMg--/http://tw-house.zenfs.com/yahookimoeditor_20140804_1407385027_0.jpg" style="border: 0px; height: 342px; width: 480px;" title="農舍類房子周圍有綠茵環繞而舒適,卻也造成交通不便利的因素。flickr@心道法師 Master Hsintao" width="532" /></span></div>
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<span class="yom-figure yom-fig-middle" style="font-size: 14pt; width: 532px;"><span class="legend">農舍類房子周圍有綠茵環繞而舒適,卻也造成交通不便利的因素。flickr@心道法師 Master Hsintao </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">買房子除了自住之外就是投資置產的考量,自住雖然無關賺賠,但起碼要求能夠保值,投資置產則是更積極的尋求能夠增值,但是房屋市場上有幾類型的產品買下來之後不但無法增值,甚至保值都是奢求,千萬不要買這種讓你絕對後悔的房子!但什麼樣類型的房子買了會讓人後悔呢?</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>1、地上權的房子</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">這類型的房子價格雖然比較便宜,但是這是在景氣好與周邊產權完整的房價做比較,萬一景氣走下坡,一般住宅價格也下跌時,就會突顯出地上產住宅價格並不特別便宜,更不要提使用越久房價越跌、地租越高等缺點了。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>2、飛機航道下的房子</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">飛機航道下或是飛機場周邊的房子,因為噪音及限高等因素,房價長期受到壓抑,別人家的房子上漲,但它卻不會漲,甚至還會下跌,想要賣掉要轉手時更是十分困難。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>3、高壓電塔旁的房子</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">雖沒有科學實驗證明,住高壓電塔或者是基地台旁較易傳出住戶致病或罹癌,雖沒有科學實驗證明,但高壓電塔或基地台是屬於嫌惡設施,風水上也屬不好的風水,越來越多人避之唯恐不及,房價要保值增值都較為不易。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>4、不見天日的房子</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">所謂不見天日的房子即是無開窗或是無陽光的房子。陽光、空氣、水是人類生存三大元素,住在不見天日的房子猶如忍者龜,但不管你的忍功再強都千萬不要買,因為有礙健康,也有風水的問題,將來要轉手,房價也容易被人殺來砍去。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>5、面高架道或鐵道旁的房子</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">這類型的房子會有噪音、隱私差及交通動線不好等問題,除非是高出高架道或是鐵路有地下化的機會,否則房價也是不易支撐,成為沒人要的產品。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>6、大片稻田或是曠野中的豪華農舍</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">這樣的農舍自住很舒服,空間環境也很舒適,可以享受採菊東籬下的田園生活,但是這類房子缺乏生活機能,沒有良好交通條件,居家安全性也不足,投入越多資金,將來要回收越難!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>7、山邊水湄的休閒度假屋</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">這類型產品同樣是面臨生活機能差等問題,加上使用率偏低,維修管理上的成本偏高,這類產品只可自娛自樂,不堪歲月侵,很少見到休閒度假屋能保值的,更別提增值了,當然有閒錢想買個度假屋,那就另當別論了!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>8、樓下是宮廟的房子</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">除非本身是虔誠的信徒,否則買這類房子等於是人住在鬼神之上,這樣家人可以住得安穩嗎?何況每座宮廟每年都有很多的慶典、法會等熱鬧的場面,居家寧適度也會受影響,對小孩的身心靈也是不好的,當然房價也相對較保不住。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>9、鄰近墳墓區的房子</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">記得孟母三遷的故事吧!孟母第1次搬家就是因為鄰近墳墓區,事實上除了對孩子的環境教育不佳之外,墳墓區也是屬嫌惡設施,人見人嫌,房價因而也較難翻身,一直都是同區域裡房價最低的。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>10、鄉村區中的高樓大廈房子</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;">這類房子鶴立雞群,擁有較佳的景觀視野與通風採光,但是不符合當地民眾對住家的喜好度,透天或是別墅型產品才是鄉村區民眾的最愛,所以這類高樓大廈完工後註定是曲高和寡,高價完工,最後的下場大多是低價賠售。</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span></div>
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<span class="yom-figure yom-fig-middle" style="font-size: 14pt; width: 307px;"><img alt="【地產專欄】張欣民:10種買了絕對讓你後悔的房子" class="editorial" data-alt="【地產專欄】張欣民:10種買了絕對讓你後悔的房子" height="460" original="https://s3.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/nCOR5Ljp8M9oXc5eY6U12Q--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTMwNw--/http://tw-house.zenfs.com/yahookimoeditor_20140804_1407159175_12.jpg" src="https://s3.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/nCOR5Ljp8M9oXc5eY6U12Q--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTMwNw--/http://tw-house.zenfs.com/yahookimoeditor_20140804_1407159175_12.jpg" style="border: 0px; display: inline;" width="307" /></span></div>
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<span class="yom-figure yom-fig-middle" style="font-size: 14pt; width: 550px;"><img alt="【地產專欄】張欣民:10種買了絕對讓你後悔的房子" class="editorial" data-alt="【地產專欄】張欣民:10種買了絕對讓你後悔的房子" height="287" original="https://s.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/TpOdRo3oAjMjoNTIf36Gsw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTU1MA--/http://tw-house.zenfs.com/yahookimoeditor_20140804_1407159175_13.jpg" src="https://s.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/TpOdRo3oAjMjoNTIf36Gsw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTU1MA--/http://tw-house.zenfs.com/yahookimoeditor_20140804_1407159175_13.jpg" style="border: 0px; display: inline; height: 250px; width: 480px;" width="550" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span style="color: #0070c0; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">原文網址:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><a href="https://tw.house.yahoo.com/news/%E3%80%90%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E5%B0%88%E6%AC%84%E3%80%91%E5%BC%B5%E6%AC%A3%E6%B0%91-10%E7%A8%AE%E8%B2%B7%E4%BA%86%E7%B5%95%E5%B0%8D%E8%AE%93%E4%BD%A0%E5%BE%8C%E6%82%94%E7%9A%84%E6%88%BF%E5%AD%90-133255262.html" style="color: #ff0033;">https://tw.house.yahoo.com/news/%E3%80%90%E5%9C%B0%E7%94%A2%E5%B0%88%E6%AC%84%E3%80%91%E5%BC%B5%E6%AC%A3%E6%B0%91-10%E7%A8%AE%E8%B2%B7%E4%BA%86%E7%B5%95%E5%B0%8D%E8%AE%93%E4%BD%A0%E5%BE%8C%E6%82%94%E7%9A%84%E6%88%BF%E5%AD%90-133255262.html</a></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-11963211136785516872015-01-22T22:02:00.002+08:002015-01-22T22:02:36.063+08:00中華信評:房價恐跌10%<div id="story_body" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(215, 215, 215); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #222222; font-family: Helvetica, 'Heiti TC', 'Segoe UI', 微軟正黑體; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0px; padding: 28px 68px 32px; position: relative; text-align: justify;">
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中華信評:房價恐跌10%</h2>
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2015-01-22 04:08:08 經濟日報 記者陳怡慈/台北報導</h3>
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中華信評昨(21)日發表報告指出,今年的國內房地產價格,可能會小幅下修,預估全國平均跌幅5%至10%。中華信評認為,只要下跌幅度不超過20%,國內銀行業還能承受起價格波動的壓力。</div>
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中華信評分析師藍于涵表示,台灣的房地產價格這幾年來,基本上是在整體資金過剩、流動性充裕、低利率環境等因素下,向上推升。台灣目前的家戶所得水準,並無法支撐目前的高房地產價格水準。</div>
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中華信評認為,只要房價平均跌幅在20%以內,一般銀行都能承受壓力。</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-90630426727347684422015-01-21T21:57:00.002+08:002015-01-21T21:59:27.625+08:00美元走入長多,啟動台股的萬點行情!<h1 style="background-color: white; font-family: dfkai-sb, stkaiti; font-size: 25px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.7em; list-style: none; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px;">
<span id="stftxtTitle">美元走入長多,啟動台股的萬點行情!</span></h1>
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<span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">美元持續走強,甚至步入長多的格局,對其他非美國的市場而言,絕對不是一件好事,因為它不但會產生全球資金的排擠效應,甚至還是引爆1997年亞洲金融風暴的源頭。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;"><img alt="2015-1-19 下午 03-14-19" border="0" src="http://pic.pimg.tw/luckylong/1421651923-2168062698_n.png?v=1421651925" height="390" style="border: 0px currentcolor; height: 263px; width: 400px;" title="2015-1-19 下午 03-14-19" width="569" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">美元走強,所造成的其他貨幣貶值,除了反應出國際資金大逃亡的心態,把當地股市當作提款機之外,內需型產業也會受到影響,因為它不僅會影響當地消費者的購買力(進口變貴了),甚至還會墊高企業的營運成本,進而縮減利潤。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">然而,相較於金磚四國的中國、俄羅斯、巴西、印度,或著是東南亞國家,支撐當地股市的企業,多半屬於內需型產業,賺的也都是當地的貨幣,<span style="color: blue;"><strong>台股絕大多數的公司,由於都是賺美元的外銷企業</strong></span>,因此倘若美元走入長多的格局,雖然在短線上,國際熱錢的流動,會對台股造成負面的衝擊,但<span style="color: red;"><strong>長線上,對台灣企業的盈餘,卻會產生極大的助益</strong></span>。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">舉例來說,2014年第3季由於新台幣兌換美元,大幅貶值了5.2角,約1.73%,預計將可為外銷的電子產業、擁有美元資產的壽險產業,帶來約200億元的匯兌收益,此外,再以單一企業的鴻海(2317)為例,由於營收中有85%是以美元計價,成本中只有75%是以美元計價,因此若新台幣兌換美元,每貶值3%,根據摩根士丹利證券的分析預估,就可提升鴻海淨利率約0.7%。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;"><img alt="2015-1-19 下午 03-14-29" border="0" src="http://pic.pimg.tw/luckylong/1421651998-3467694655_n.png?v=1421652001" height="379" style="border: 0px currentcolor; height: 278px; width: 400px;" title="2015-1-19 下午 03-14-29" width="569" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">上述的結果,正可以解釋<span style="color: #ff6600;"><strong>1995年4月到2001年7月那一段美元指數從80.05走升到121.02的過程中,台股為何可以2度攻上萬點?</strong></span>關鍵的原因,就在於台股本身的產業結構,在面對美元不斷走升的內容時,雖然國際熱錢的快速流動,提高了整體的系統性風險,甚至波及到本益比的向下修正,但由於整體企業的獲利持續走揚,因此不僅支撐了個股的股價表現,甚至還提供台股在1997年8月攻上10,256,與2000年2月攻上10,393兩次萬點行情的最大助力。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;">除此之外,美元進入長多的格局,雖然會對賺美元的台灣企業產生極大的收益,不過由於整體區域的系統性風險升高,因此股價的劇烈波動不僅成為常態,更讓台股僅在6年期間,兩度站上萬點,又兩度跌落到4、5千點,起伏之大,可以說是讓當時的投資人飽受有如洗三溫暖的感受。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">整體而言,由於慶龍認為美元有非常大的機會,將再次步入長多的格局,因此對台股未來的行情判斷,重複上演價格劇烈波動的戲碼,將是未來可以預見的趨勢,而這個趨勢,也將為日報的訂戶,帶來股票投資上非常大機會,畢竟,<span style="color: magenta;"><strong>越有價格的劇烈波動,投資人只要能夠掌握到趨勢的一方,就越能創造出超額的利潤。</strong></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;"><img alt="2015-1-19 下午 03-14-46" border="0" src="http://pic.pimg.tw/luckylong/1421652079-3627254155_n.png?v=1421652081" height="373" style="border: 0px currentcolor; height: 264px; width: 400px;" title="2015-1-19 下午 03-14-46" width="569" /></span></div>
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<strong><span style="color: red; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">我要買書,送《投資家日報》試閱:</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 24px;"></span></div>
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<strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: magenta; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">@YAHOO</span></strong><strong><span style="color: magenta; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">拍賣</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">(</span></strong><strong><span style="color: blue; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">附作者親筆簽名、全家便利商店</span></strong><strong><span style="color: red; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">取貨付款</span></strong><strong><span style="color: blue; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">、免運費)</span></strong><span style="color: blue; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">:</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 24px;"><a href="https://tw.bid.yahoo.com/item/%E3%80%90%E6%BA%90%E6%BA%90%E4%B8%8D%E7%B5%95%E8%B3%BA%E5%A5%BD%E8%82%A1%E3%80%91%E9%99%84%E4%BD%9C%E8%80%85%E5%AD%AB%E6%85%B6%E9%BE%8D%E8%A6%AA%E7%AD%86%E7%B0%BD%E5%90%8D-%E7%86%B1%E8%B3%A3%E7%AC%AC%E5%9B%9B%E5%88%8A-100024823225" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 109, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #b96d00; text-decoration: none;">https://tw.bid.yahoo.com/item/<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">【源源不絕賺好股】附作者孫慶龍親筆簽名</span>-<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 新細明體, serif;">熱賣第四刊</span>-100024823225</a></span></div>
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<strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: magenta; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">@</span></strong><strong><span style="color: magenta; font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">博客來書店</span></strong><span style="font-family: 微軟正黑體, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 33.59px;">:</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 24px;"><a href="http://www.books.com.tw/products/0010609887" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(185, 109, 0); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; color: #b96d00; text-decoration: none;">http://www.books.com.tw/products/0010609887</a></span></div>
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<span 0="" 14pt="" lang="EN-US" rgb="" sans-serif=""><span 14pt="" 65="" rgb="" sans-serif=""><span 14pt="" 65="" lang="EN-US" rgb="" sans-serif=""><span 11pt="" 65="" arial="" lang="EN-US" rgb="" sans-serif=""><span 14pt="" 190="" 65="" lang="EN-US" rgb="" sans-serif=""><strong><span style="color: magenta; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">本文來自</span><a href="http://luckylong.pixnet.net/blog" style="color: #00529b; text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #00529b; font-family: Arial;">《孫慶龍的投資部落》</span></a></span></strong></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span 0="" 14pt="" lang="EN-US" rgb="" sans-serif=""><span 14pt="" 65="" rgb="" sans-serif=""><span 14pt="" 65="" lang="EN-US" rgb="" sans-serif=""><span 11pt="" 65="" arial="" lang="EN-US" rgb="" sans-serif=""><span 14pt="" 190="" 65="" lang="EN-US" rgb="" sans-serif=""><strong><span style="color: magenta; font-size: large;"><span style="color: magenta; font-family: 微軟正黑體; font-size: medium;">http:// luckylong.pixnet.net/blog</span></span></strong></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-81706801878129539402015-01-13T22:06:00.000+08:002015-01-13T22:06:05.907+08:00房屋稅上百萬 重稅時代來臨<div class="yom-mod yom-art-hd" id="mediaarticlehead" style="background-color: white; border-color: rgb(52, 78, 127); border-top-style: none; font-family: arial, STHeiti, pmingliu, sans-serif; line-height: 16.0030002593994px; margin: 12px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; zoom: 1;">
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<span style="font-size: large;">房屋稅上百萬 重稅時代來臨</span></h1>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><a data-rapid_p="1" href="http://www.chinatimes.com/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #5d4370; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img alt="中時電子報" class="logo" src="https://s1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/N6NH4ZL0SsQ_yxQKdYtgrw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9Zml0O2g9NDM0/http://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/news/2013-11-04/047f292e-bb91-434c-b841-98c6c817a719_logo-1-.png" style="background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; display: inline; height: 27px; margin: 0px 10px 0px 0px; vertical-align: middle;" title="" /></a><cite class="byline vcard" style="color: #7d7d7d; display: inline !important; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; line-height: 2.2em; vertical-align: middle;">作者: <span class="fn">記者蔡惠芳╱台北報導</span> | <span class="provider org">中時電子報</span> – <abbr style="border: 0px;" title="2015-01-12T21:50:28Z">2015年1月13日 上午5:50</abbr></cite></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">工商時報【記者蔡惠芳╱台北報導】</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">不動產重稅時代正式來臨!台北市「獨有」的豪宅稅加重稅率、加上房屋標準單價大舉調升1.6倍,為去(2014)年7月1日之後交屋的新屋投下超級震撼彈!1戶每年上繳房屋稅動輒百萬起跳,契稅甚至出現高達420萬元天價案例,徹底顛覆台灣人過往對房屋稅賦的概念;而暴漲的契稅、房屋稅,也讓豪宅買家怨聲載道,並衍生交屋糾紛潮。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">會計師精算後更示警指出,台北市部分豪宅將來每年的持有成本,恐怕高達1,000萬元;購屋者除非口袋夠深,否則未來不但可能會養不起房,甚至淪為「負資產」族群。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">中華民國地政士公會全聯會名譽理事長、消基會委員王進祥表示,台北市已正式進入重稅時代,以往不動產有效稅率大約只有千分之1∼3的輕稅時代將不復見。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">資誠會計師事務所稅務策略長吳德豐表示,台北市自2014年7月1日正式實施房屋稅修正條文,領取使用執照並完工交屋的房屋標準單價全面調高1.6倍甚至更高;加上符合豪宅標準者的「懲罰性稅率」,讓即使只差1天交屋、自此房屋稅就激增數倍。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">他舉例指出,早期台北著名豪宅、仁愛路宏盛帝寶1戶房屋稅約8∼10萬元,2011年調高路段率後,大幅跳升至20∼30萬元;但去年7月1日以後交屋的台北新屋,同路段豪宅至少要繳50∼100萬元的房屋稅,可見稅賦之重。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">某豪宅契稅420萬、年繳房稅250萬</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">以華固建設「松疆」為例,日前陸續交屋,不少客戶看到契稅單都嚇一大跳,因為每戶動輒數百萬,估計明年每年的房屋稅也突破百萬大關;另外興富發建設的「松江一號院」,有客戶的契稅竟然高達420萬元,推估一年房屋稅恐上看250萬元;而興富發的另一豪宅案「台北一號院」最近正辦理交屋,單戶契稅約170萬,而據推每年房屋稅也高達百萬元。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">這一波2014年7月1日之後首次登記的「新豪宅」淪為「重災區」,災情極為慘重;不動產開發公會預期,由於房屋標準單價提高,接下來要交屋的新案,房屋稅也一定加重,不論要增加3,000或5,000元,對許多中產階級來說都是不小的負擔,公會擔心未來第二波受災戶,打擊面會擴大,政府應正視其效應。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">建商私下透露,確實很多豪宅客感受到北市「天龍國」式的房屋稅賦,讓他們相當「有感」,交屋時繳契稅已經歷一場震撼教育;接下來5月份又要繳交房屋稅,不是紛紛向會計師求救,就是要求向建商退戶還款,或拜託代銷和房仲轉手,甚至只能挫咧等。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">會計師透露,台北市高稅、重稅時代來臨,除了房屋稅加重外,還有房貸已無寬限期、未來可能升息,契稅、地價稅也加重,就像五箭穿心,沒死也會內傷,有多少人養得起房?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">房價評定現值</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">比造價還高</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">以這張契稅達420萬元的豪宅來說,總價約2.16億元,依契稅稅率反推其房屋評定現值要7千多萬元,換算每1坪房屋單價竟高達38萬元,比一般豪宅的造價每坪約25萬元還貴上5成,相當不合理;而依其路段率加豪宅稅稅率推算,接下來接到的房屋稅稅單,應在250萬元以上。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">會計師分析,未來「養房族」恐怕會淪「負資產新貧族」,因為除了房屋稅暴增之外,這位豪宅主人每年負擔地價稅估計大概50∼80萬,加上管理費每年約32萬元,本金加利息償還金額約700萬元,還有傭人費用48萬元,林林總總1年至少要準備1,000萬元支出;除非每年房價增值千萬元以上,否則勢必倒貼,淪為「負資產」族群。而對擁有4戶以上適用囤房稅的多屋族來說,想在「天龍國」養房,恐怕很難養得活。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">高稅震撼教育</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">豪宅交屋糾紛多</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">這兩年政府藉居住正義之名,大幅調高房屋評定現值、路段率、豪宅認定等,如今高房屋稅「惡夢成真」!最近台北市交屋的總價8千萬以上豪宅,買家已受到震撼教育,也衍生許多交屋糾紛,並真正感受到持有房屋的高昂代價。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">從去年7月以來,新完工交屋的大戶豪宅案,包括「華固松疆」、「松江一號院」、「台北一號院」到「國泰天母」,建商不諱言,上述種種原因,交屋過程非常辛苦,入帳時程也比預期延宕。華固建設總經理洪嘉昇透露,確實很多客戶看到契稅稅單時都嚇一大跳;但買豪宅的人,真的有原罪嗎?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">地政士和稅務專家坦言,不少豪宅客戶拖拖拉拉、不想交屋,甚至要求建商延後交屋,造成有些糾紛;已有客戶委託代銷和仲介轉賣,尋求解套之道。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">每年房屋稅動輒百萬起跳的重稅時代儼然來臨。信義房屋不動產企研室蘇啟榮分析,未來陸續完工的超豪宅包括冠德「興雅BCF」、元利「信義聯勤」、大陸「B7」案、威京集團「陶朱隱園」、富創建設「D3」等,都將躋身百萬房屋稅俱樂部!擁有豪宅將不再只是身份地位的表徵,更可能是荷包大縮水的痛苦開始。</span></div>
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<div class="yom-mod yom-sentiment-vote textimg-m textimg-s text-img-s" id="mediasentiment" style="border-color: rgb(52, 78, 127); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 3px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; position: relative; zoom: 1;">
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<span style="color: white; font-weight: bold; position: relative; z-index: 3;"><span style="font-size: large;">看完覺得</span></span></div>
<form action="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/" class="yom-sentiment-form" id="sentimentform" method="POST" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<ul class="yom-sentiment-menu clearfix" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; zoom: 1;">
<li class="informative first" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="informative"><a alt="實用" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="2" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:84a8a3ab-6ef2-39da-9f77-17c01b3c696a;act:informative;slk:informative;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=informative&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -691px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
實用</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="warm" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="warm"><a alt="感人" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="4" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:84a8a3ab-6ef2-39da-9f77-17c01b3c696a;act:warm;slk:warm;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=warm&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -1027px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
感人</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="happy" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="happy"><a alt="開心" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="6" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:84a8a3ab-6ef2-39da-9f77-17c01b3c696a;act:happy;slk:happy;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=happy&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -649px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
開心</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="odd" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="odd"><a alt="超扯" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="8" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:84a8a3ab-6ef2-39da-9f77-17c01b3c696a;act:odd;slk:odd;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=odd&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -775px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
超扯</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="boring" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="boring"><a alt="無聊" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="10" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:84a8a3ab-6ef2-39da-9f77-17c01b3c696a;act:boring;slk:boring;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=boring&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -817px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
無聊</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="worried" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="worried"><a alt="害怕" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="12" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:84a8a3ab-6ef2-39da-9f77-17c01b3c696a;act:worried;slk:worried;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=worried&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -1111px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
害怕</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="depressing" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="depressing"><a alt="難過" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="14" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:84a8a3ab-6ef2-39da-9f77-17c01b3c696a;act:depressing;slk:depressing;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=depressing&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 0px -733px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
難過</div>
</span></a></label></li>
<li class="angry last" style="display: block; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><label for="angry"><a alt="火大" class="rapid-nf" data-rapid_p="16" data-ylk="sec:mediasentiment;ccode:sentimentvote;lt:#ca;itc:1;pkg:84a8a3ab-6ef2-39da-9f77-17c01b3c696a;act:angry;slk:angry;" href="https://tw.news.yahoo.com/_xhr/sentiment/?option=angry&mod_class=text-img-s&sec=mediasentiment&spaceid=2144404884" style="border: 1px solid transparent; color: #5d4370; display: block; height: 30px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-decoration: none; width: 75px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: url(https://s1.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/news/images/sentiment-aa7a3a8.png) 1px -859px no-repeat; display: block; float: left; height: 23px; margin: 5px 5px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden; width: 23px;"></span><div style="float: left; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: capitalize;">
火大</div>
</span></a></label></li>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12583320442703513711noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9179783295669352613.post-31707684074972668732015-01-13T18:59:00.003+08:002015-01-13T19:01:12.786+08:00金融傳產接連攻 多軍士氣盡回籠<table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="yui-text-left" id="aritcletable" style="background-color: white; color: black; width: 440px;"><tbody>
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<tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF" class="yui-text-left" valign="top"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="mbody1 style1" style="font-family: 新細明體; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25pt;"><span class="style12" style="font-family: 新細明體, mingliu, taipei; line-height: 25pt;">元大寶來期貨台股期指盤後-金融傳產接連攻 多軍士氣盡回籠</span></span><br /><span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">2015/01/13 17:39</span> <span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">鉅亨網 鉅亨台北資料中心</span> </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">鉅亨台北資料中心</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">◆盤勢分析</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">由於原油價格持續下行的壓力,週一美股震盪收低,歐台期也下跌34點作收,週二亞股則呈現漲跌互見,而台股由金融族群擔綱領漲重任,帶動大盤漲勢,台指期開高走高,盤中屢見爆量買單進場拉抬,顯示短多氣勢相對積極,全盤普遍呈現正價差,終場期現貨正價差擴大到18點,更透露出期貨市場追價意願相對積極,選擇權波動率變化不大,市場風險意識並未明顯增溫。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">觀察法人籌碼變化,三大法人同步買超現貨,其中外資買超25.8億元,自營商也買超0.9億元,三大法人合計買超27.9億元;在台指期淨部位方面,外資加碼淨多單3,790口至13,879口,連日偏多操作,自營商小幅加碼淨空單241口至2,083口,三大法人合計淨多單增加3,345口至11,972口,法人整體部位期現貨同步偏多操作,顯示法人態度朝向多方傾斜。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">週二台股成交金額增加至916億元,價量齊揚的格局顯示盤勢較向多方靠攏;各類股期指中電子期高低點雖然向下推移,但卻留有明顯的下影線,顯示下方支撐依然持穩,金融期與非金電期則紛紛站上10日均線,且金融期強漲1.23%,多頭攻勢最為猛烈,台指期近期盤中波動幅度不小,短線多空激烈拉扯的戲碼有機會再度上演,不過指數成功重返了短中期均線之上,並收復9200點關卡,顯示目前多方相對具有優勢。</span><br />
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<tr><td valign="top" width="8"><span class="stext style2" style="color: #4f5d70; font-family: arial; line-height: 18pt;"><span style="font-size: large;">▪</span></span></td><td valign="top"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="mbody" style="font-family: arial; line-height: 20pt;"><a href="https://tw.rd.yahoo.com/referurl/stock/article/other/1/*https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news_content/url/d/a/20150113/%E5%85%83%E5%A4%A7%E5%AF%B6%E4%BE%86%E6%9C%9F%E8%B2%A8%E5%8F%B0%E8%82%A1%E6%9C%9F%E6%8C%87%E7%9B%A4%E5%BE%8C-%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%82%B3%E7%94%A2%E6%8E%A5%E9%80%A3%E6%94%BB-%E5%A4%9A%E8%BB%8D%E5%A3%AB%E6%B0%A3%E7%9B%A1%E5%9B%9E%E7%B1%A0-093911690.html" style="color: blue; text-decoration: none;">元大寶來期貨台股期指盤後-金融傳產接連攻 多軍士氣盡回籠</a></span><span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">(鉅亨網 17:39)</span></span></td></tr>
<tr><td valign="top" width="8"><span class="stext style2" style="color: #4f5d70; font-family: arial; line-height: 18pt;"><span style="font-size: large;">▪</span></span></td><td valign="top"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="mbody" style="font-family: arial; line-height: 20pt;"><a href="https://tw.rd.yahoo.com/referurl/stock/article/other/2/*https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news_content/url/d/a/20150113/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B8%E6%9C%9F%E8%B2%A8%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E5%A0%B1%E5%83%B9-16-29-090133032.html" style="color: blue; text-decoration: none;">美股指數期貨最新報價 16:29</a></span><span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">(Moneydj理財網 16:43)</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="stext style2" style="color: #4f5d70; font-family: arial; line-height: 18pt;" valign="top" width="8"><span style="font-size: large;">▪</span></td><td valign="top"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="mbody" style="font-family: arial; line-height: 20pt;"><a href="https://tw.rd.yahoo.com/referurl/stock/article/mostview/3/*https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news_content/url/d/a/20150112/%E5%85%89%E9%9B%BB%E8%82%A1-%E6%99%B6%E9%9B%BB%E5%90%88%E4%BD%B5%E5%8F%B0%E7%A9%8D%E5%9B%BA%E6%85%8B%E7%85%A7%E6%98%8E-%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4%E8%82%AF%E5%AE%9A-023428489.html" style="color: blue; text-decoration: none;">《光電股》晶電合併台積固態照明,市場肯定</a></span><span class="t1" style="color: grey; font-family: arial; line-height: 14pt; vertical-align: middle;">(時報資訊 10:34 )</span></span></td></tr>
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